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全球、区域和国家在 204 个国家和地区 1990 年至 2019 年期间心肌炎负担:更新的系统分析。

Global, Regional, and National Burden of Myocarditis in 204 Countries and Territories From 1990 to 2019: Updated Systematic Analysis.

机构信息

Department of Pediatrics, Qilu Hospital of Shandong University, Jinan, Shandong, China.

Department of Cardiology, Qilu Hospital of Shandong University, Jinan, Shandong, China.

出版信息

JMIR Public Health Surveill. 2024 Jan 11;10:e46635. doi: 10.2196/46635.

Abstract

BACKGROUND

Myocarditis is characterized by high disability and mortality, and imposes a severe burden on population health globally. However, the latest global magnitude and secular trend of myocarditis burden have not been reported.

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to delineate the epidemiological characteristics of myocarditis burden globally for optimizing targeted prevention and research.

METHODS

Based on the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019, the myocarditis burden from 1990 to 2019 was modeled using the Cause of Death Ensemble tool, DisMod-MR, and spatiotemporal Gaussian regression. We depicted the epidemiology and trends of myocarditis by sex, age, year, region, and sociodemographic index (SDI). R program version 4.2.1 (R Project for Statistical Computing) was applied for all statistical analyses, and a 2-sided P-value of <.05 was considered statistically significant.

RESULTS

The number of incident cases (1,268,000) and deaths (32,450) associated with myocarditis in 2019 increased by over 1.6 times compared with the values in 1990 globally. On the other hand, the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) and age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) decreased slightly from 1990 to 2019. The disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) decreased slightly in the past 3 decades, while the age-standardized DALY rate (ASDR) decreased greatly from 18.29 per 100,000 person-years in 1990 to 12.81 per 100,000 person-years in 2019. High SDI regions always showed a more significant ASIR. The ASIR slightly decreased in all SDI regions between 1990 and 2019. Middle SDI regions had the highest ASMR and ASDR in 2019. Low SDI regions had the lowest ASMR and ASDR in 2019. The age-standardized rates (ASRs) of myocarditis were higher among males than among females from 1990 to 2019 globally. All ASRs among both sexes had a downward trend, except for the ASMR among males, which showed a stable trend, and females had a more significant decrease in the ASDR than males. Senior citizens had high incident cases and deaths among both sexes in 2019. The peak numbers of DALYs for both sexes were noted in the under 1 age group in 2019. At the national level, the estimated annual percentage changes in the ASRs had significant negative correlations with the baseline ASRs in 1990.

CONCLUSIONS

Globally, the number of incident cases and deaths associated with myocarditis have increased significantly. On the other hand, the ASRs of myocarditis showed decreasing trends from 1990 to 2019. Males consistently showed higher ASRs of myocarditis than females from 1990 to 2019 globally. Senior citizens gradually predominated in terms of myocarditis burden. Policymakers should establish targeted control strategies based on gender, region, age, and SDI; strengthen aging-related health research; and take notice of the changes in the epidemic characteristics of myocarditis.

摘要

背景

心肌炎的特点是高残疾和高死亡率,给全球人口健康带来严重负担。然而,最新的全球心肌炎负担规模和时间趋势尚未报道。

目的

本研究旨在描述全球心肌炎负担的流行病学特征,以优化有针对性的预防和研究。

方法

基于 2019 年全球疾病负担研究,使用死因综合工具、DisMod-MR 和时空高斯回归模型,对 1990 年至 2019 年的心肌炎负担进行建模。我们通过性别、年龄、年份、地区和社会人口指数(SDI)描述心肌炎的流行病学和趋势。所有统计分析均应用 R 程序版本 4.2.1(用于统计计算的 R 项目),双侧 P 值<0.05 被认为具有统计学意义。

结果

2019 年全球心肌炎的发病(126.8 万例)和死亡(3.245 万例)病例数比 1990 年增加了 1.6 倍以上。另一方面,1990 年至 2019 年,年龄标准化发病率(ASIR)和年龄标准化死亡率(ASMR)略有下降。过去 30 年,伤残调整生命年(DALYs)略有下降,而年龄标准化 DALY 率(ASDR)则从 1990 年的每 10 万人 18.29 人年显著下降到 2019 年的每 10 万人 12.81 人年。高 SDI 地区的 ASIR 始终较高。1990 年至 2019 年,所有 SDI 地区的 ASIR 均略有下降。2019 年,中 SDI 地区的 ASMR 和 ASDR 最高。2019 年,低 SDI 地区的 ASMR 和 ASDR 最低。1990 年至 2019 年,全球男性的 ASIR 均高于女性。除了男性的 ASMR 呈稳定趋势外,所有 ASR 均呈下降趋势,女性的 ASDR 下降幅度大于男性。老年人在 2019 年的男女两性中均有较高的发病和死亡病例数。2019 年,男女两性的 DALY 峰值均出现在 1 岁以下年龄组。在国家层面,估计的 ASR 年变化率与 1990 年的基线 ASR 呈显著负相关。

结论

全球范围内,与心肌炎相关的发病和死亡病例数显著增加。另一方面,1990 年至 2019 年,心肌炎的 ASR 呈下降趋势。1990 年至 2019 年,全球男性的 ASR 始终高于女性。老年人逐渐成为心肌炎负担的主要人群。政策制定者应根据性别、地区、年龄和 SDI 制定有针对性的控制策略;加强与老龄化相关的健康研究;并注意心肌炎流行特征的变化。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/bc7d/10811576/7f2577474587/publichealth_v10i1e46635_fig1.jpg

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