State Key Joint Laboratory of Environmental Simulation and Pollution Control, School of Environment, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, 100875, China.
State Key Joint Laboratory of Environmental Simulation and Pollution Control, School of Environment, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, 100875, China.
J Environ Manage. 2024 Feb 14;352:120068. doi: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2024.120068. Epub 2024 Jan 11.
Increasingly frequent urban waterlogging disasters are having profound social and economic consequences. An appropriate and integrated evaluation of the total economic impacts of such disasters is crucial for achieving effective urban disaster risk management and sustainable development. However, existing metrics are inadequate for measuring the economic impacts of rainfall events of different intensities and their ripple effects across regions. Moreover, their ecological impacts have received insufficient attention. To address these gaps, we developed an integrated assessment framework for analyzing urban waterlogging losses and evaluating their various impacts. Taking Beijing as a case study, we used the InfoWorks ICM model to simulate urban waterlogging disaster risks, quantified direct economic losses, and assessed their environmental impacts. Additionally, we estimated indirect economic losses using input-output analysis and explored spillover effects. The results revealed increasing trends of direct economic losses and environmental losses corresponding to a longer return period. We observed synergies between these losses and their spatial heterogeneity. However, indirect impacts far outweighed direct impacts, with the former being 2.43 times larger than the latter. The cascading effect resulting from damage to infrastructure was also particularly pronounced. The industrial and spatial heterogeneity of interregional impacts was striking, with eastern provinces evidencing the most significant effects. By mapping the transmission paths of disaster losses along industrial chains and across regions, this study provides inputs that could assist policymakers in developing more effective measures for preventing and mitigating urban waterlogging disasters.
日益频繁的城市内涝灾害给社会和经济带来了深远的影响。对这类灾害的总经济影响进行适当且综合的评估，对于实现有效的城市灾害风险管理和可持续发展至关重要。然而，现有的衡量标准不足以衡量不同强度降雨事件的经济影响及其在区域间的连锁效应。此外，它们对生态的影响也没有得到足够的重视。为了解决这些差距，我们开发了一个综合评估框架，用于分析城市内涝损失并评估其各种影响。以北京为例，我们使用 InfoWorks ICM 模型模拟城市内涝灾害风险，量化了直接经济损失，并评估了其环境影响。此外，我们还利用投入产出分析估计了间接经济损失，并探讨了溢出效应。结果表明，直接经济损失和环境损失都随着重现期的延长而呈现出上升趋势。我们观察到这些损失之间存在协同作用及其空间异质性。然而，间接影响远远超过了直接影响，前者是后者的 2.43 倍。基础设施损坏造成的级联效应也尤为显著。区域间影响的产业和空间异质性引人注目，东部省份的影响最为显著。通过绘制灾害损失沿产业链和跨区域的传递路径，本研究提供了有助于决策者制定更有效的城市内涝灾害预防和缓解措施的依据。
