Rodriguez-Cartes Sebastian A, Zhang Yiwei, Mayorga Maria E, Swann Julie L, Allaire Benjamin T
Edward P. Fitts Department of Industrial & Systems Engineering, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, North Carolina, United States of America.
Operations Research Program, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, North Carolina, United States of America.
PLOS Glob Public Health. 2024 Jan 16;4(1):e0002656. doi: 10.1371/journal.pgph.0002656. eCollection 2024.
We assessed the potential impact of introducing rubella-containing vaccine (RCV) on congenital rubella syndrome (CRS) incidence in Afghanistan (AFG), Democratic Republic of Congo (COD), Ethiopia (ETH), Nigeria (NGA), and Pakistan (PAK). We simulated several RCV introduction scenarios over 30 years using a validated mathematical model. Our findings indicate that RCV introduction could avert between 86,000 and 535,000 CRS births, preventing 2.5 to 15.8 million disability-adjusted life years. AFG and PAK could reduce about 90% of CRS births by introducing RCV with current measles routine coverage and executing supplemental immunization activities (SIAs). However, COD, NGA, and ETH must increase their current routine vaccination coverage to reduce CRS incidence significantly. This study showcases the potential benefits of RCV introduction and reinforces the need for global action to strengthen immunization programs.
我们评估了引入含风疹疫苗(RCV)对阿富汗(AFG)、刚果民主共和国(COD)、埃塞俄比亚(ETH)、尼日利亚(NGA)和巴基斯坦(PAK)先天性风疹综合征(CRS)发病率的潜在影响。我们使用经过验证的数学模型模拟了30年内几种引入RCV的情景。我们的研究结果表明,引入RCV可避免86,000至535,000例CRS出生,预防250万至1580万残疾调整生命年。阿富汗和巴基斯坦通过在当前麻疹常规免疫覆盖率基础上引入RCV并开展补充免疫活动(SIAs),可减少约90%的CRS出生。然而,刚果民主共和国、尼日利亚和埃塞俄比亚必须提高其当前的常规疫苗接种覆盖率,才能显著降低CRS发病率。本研究展示了引入RCV的潜在益处,并强调了全球采取行动加强免疫规划的必要性。