选定的赛前协变量对国际板球一日赛（ODI）比赛结果的作用。
The role of selected pre-match covariates on the outcome of One-day International (ODI) cricket matches.
作者信息
McEwan K, Pote L, Radloff S, Nicholls S B, Christie C
机构信息
Department of Human Kinetics and Ergonomics, Rhodes University, Grahamstown, South Africa.
Department of Sport, Outdoor and Exercise Science, University of Derby, England.
出版信息
S Afr J Sports Med. 2023 Jun 5;35(1):v35i1a15012. doi: 10.17159/2078-516X/2023/v35i1a15012. eCollection 2023.
BACKGROUND
The identification of key factors that systematically influence a team's success is important and has led to the application of statistical models in sport. Predicting the outcome of a One Day International (ODI) cricket match, using only pre-match covariates, has been minimally investigated.
OBJECTIVES
This research sought to investigate the impact that venue, toss outcome, toss decision, and match type have on the chances of winning an ODI match.
METHODS
A total of 1228 men's international ODI matches were analysed. A logistic regression model was used to identify the significance of these pre-match covariates on the result of the matches.
RESULTS
The results varied across all teams, suggesting that there are individualised factors driving these differences and that generalising the impact pre-match covariates have in every team is unrealistic. New Zealand and India displayed a significant home advantage effect, whereas Australia had a strong tendency towards a significant disadvantage when they won the toss. However, for most teams, toss outcome, toss decision, and match type did not significantly impact the outcome of an ODI match.
CONCLUSION
New Zealand and Australia were the most predictable teams, whereas South Africa and Pakistan were regarded as unpredictable when pre-match covariates were used to forecast the outcome of their ODI matches.
背景
识别系统性影响团队成功的关键因素很重要，这促使统计模型在体育领域得到应用。仅使用赛前协变量来预测一日国际板球比赛（ODI）的结果，相关研究极少。
目的
本研究旨在调查比赛场地、掷硬币结果、掷硬币决策和比赛类型对赢得ODI比赛几率的影响。
方法
共分析了1228场男子国际ODI比赛。使用逻辑回归模型来确定这些赛前协变量对比赛结果的显著性。
结果
所有球队的结果各不相同，这表明存在驱动这些差异的个性化因素，并且将赛前协变量对每个球队的影响进行概括是不现实的。新西兰队和印度队表现出显著的主场优势效应，而澳大利亚队在赢得掷硬币时则有很大倾向处于显著劣势。然而，对于大多数球队来说，掷硬币结果、掷硬币决策和比赛类型对ODI比赛结果没有显著影响。
结论
当使用赛前协变量来预测ODI比赛结果时，新西兰队和澳大利亚队是最可预测的球队，而南非队和巴基斯坦队则被认为是不可预测的。
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