Mattson M E, Pollack E S, Cullen J W
Am J Public Health. 1987 Apr;77(4):425-31. doi: 10.2105/ajph.77.4.425.
We calculated the long-term risks of death from smoking for individuals of various ages and smoking status in terms of the excess mortality contributed by smoking, over and above the baseline mortality from the same diseases caused by factors other than smoking using standard life table procedures. Since mortality data for specific smoking categories were available only from prospective studies in the late 1950s, we scaled these to the 1982 mortality levels. We assumed, for lung cancer, that the death rates for nonsmokers have not changed and, for other smoking-related diseases, that the risks of death for smokers relative to those for nonsmokers have not changed since the 1950s. Probabilities that result from alternative assumptions were also investigated and are presented. As many as one-third of heavy smokers age 35 will die before age 85 of diseases caused by their smoking. The probabilities of death from smoking when compared with other causes may be persuasive as public education tools. Their effective use for this purpose is affected not only by the deficiencies in the public's factual knowledge of the magnitude of the risks from smoking, but also by numerous apparent misconceptions relating to the interpretation of risk information. Risk data should be presented to the public in a manner that clarifies these misconceptions and facilitates their understanding of the overwhelming risk imposed by smoking.
我们使用标准生命表程序，根据吸烟导致的超额死亡率（即超出由吸烟以外因素引起的相同疾病的基线死亡率），计算了不同年龄和吸烟状况个体因吸烟导致的长期死亡风险。由于特定吸烟类别的死亡率数据仅可从20世纪50年代末的前瞻性研究中获取，我们将这些数据按比例调整至1982年的死亡率水平。对于肺癌，我们假设非吸烟者的死亡率未发生变化；对于其他与吸烟相关的疾病，我们假设自20世纪50年代以来，吸烟者相对于非吸烟者的死亡风险未发生变化。我们还研究并展示了基于其他假设得出的概率。多达三分之一的35岁重度吸烟者将在85岁之前死于由吸烟引起的疾病。与其他死因相比，因吸烟导致死亡的概率作为公共教育工具可能具有说服力。其在此目的上的有效使用不仅受到公众对吸烟风险程度的实际知识不足的影响，还受到许多与风险信息解读相关的明显误解的影响。应以一种澄清这些误解并促进公众理解吸烟所带来的巨大风险的方式向公众呈现风险数据。
