Decision-making dynamics are predicted by arousal and uninstructed movements.

During sensory-guided behavior, an animal's decision-making dynamics unfold through sequences of distinct performance states, even while stimulus-reward contingencies remain static. Little is known about the factors that underlie these changes in task performance. We hypothesize that these decision-making dynamics can be predicted by externally observable measures, such as uninstructed movements and changes in arousal. Here, using computational modeling of visual and auditory task performance data from mice, we uncovered lawful relationships between transitions in strategic task performance states and an animal's arousal and uninstructed movements. Using hidden Markov models applied to behavioral choices during sensory discrimination tasks, we find that animals fluctuate between minutes-long optimal, sub-optimal, and disengaged performance states. Optimal state epochs are predicted by intermediate levels, and reduced variability, of pupil diameter and movement. Our results demonstrate that externally observable uninstructed behaviors can predict optimal performance states and suggest that mice regulate their arousal during optimal performance.