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埃塞俄比亚农村奶牛养殖户市场改善干预措施评估:基于系统动力学方法的证据

Evaluation of interventions to improve markets for rural dairy households of Ethiopia: Evidence through system dynamics approach.

作者信息

Temesgen Milkessa, Haji Jema, Negassa Asfaw, Galmessa Ulfina

机构信息

Department of Agricultural Economics, Ambo University, Ethiopia.

Agricultural Economics, School of Agricultural Economics and Agribusiness, Haramaya University, Ethiopia.

出版信息

Heliyon. 2024 Jan 11;10(2):e24129. doi: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2024.e24129. eCollection 2024 Jan 30.

DOI:10.1016/j.heliyon.2024.e24129
PMID:38293382
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC10826652/
Abstract

There is a growing consensus that improving market access for smallholder farmers will help them earn more income and enhance food security. In this respect, we employed system dynamics approach to evaluate interventions to expand market access for the traditional system dairy producers in West Shewa zone, Oromia region, Ethiopia. Investment by dairy cooperatives in milk collection capacity and/or raising the price of milk for producers are the interventions identified in the study. These interventions were assessed ex-ante for impacts on (1) milk collection and dairy enterprise balance for dairy cooperatives and (2) milk production and profitability of dairying for producers. Analysis results show that compared to the baseline, the interventions can increase milk production by 17 to 57 %, milk collection by 24- to 43-fold, dairy household's profit by 11- to 21-fold, and cooperatives' dairy enterprise balance by 27- to 55-fold. In the long-term, both dairy cooperatives and producers are better off under market access improvement than under market access with higher milk price for producers. The findings suggest that continued improvement in market access for the traditional dairy farmers in Ethiopia is necessary to sustain higher gains in milk production, milk marketed, and income from dairying.

摘要

越来越多的人达成共识,即改善小农户的市场准入将有助于他们获得更多收入并增强粮食安全。在这方面,我们采用系统动力学方法来评估为埃塞俄比亚奥罗米亚州西谢瓦地区的传统系统乳制品生产商扩大市场准入的干预措施。乳制品合作社在牛奶收集能力方面的投资和/或提高生产者的牛奶价格是该研究中确定的干预措施。这些干预措施事前被评估对(1)乳制品合作社的牛奶收集和乳制品企业平衡,以及(2)生产者的牛奶生产和乳制品盈利能力的影响。分析结果表明,与基线相比,这些干预措施可使牛奶产量增加17%至57%,牛奶收集量增加24至43倍,奶农家庭利润增加11至21倍,合作社的乳制品企业平衡增加27至55倍。从长期来看,改善市场准入条件下的乳制品合作社和生产者都比生产者牛奶价格较高的市场准入条件下状况更好。研究结果表明,埃塞俄比亚传统奶农持续改善市场准入对于维持牛奶产量、上市牛奶量和乳制品收入的更高增长是必要的。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/f658/10826652/49f2132bb4d8/gr8.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/f658/10826652/a1622104a4b4/gr1.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/f658/10826652/92132c35e8b6/gr2.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/f658/10826652/fad5d25b923c/gr3.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/f658/10826652/87578d2f067d/gr4.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/f658/10826652/d4c557553c82/gr5.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/f658/10826652/00fcac913577/gr6.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/f658/10826652/6bc37e3c6ef9/gr7.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/f658/10826652/49f2132bb4d8/gr8.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/f658/10826652/a1622104a4b4/gr1.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/f658/10826652/92132c35e8b6/gr2.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/f658/10826652/fad5d25b923c/gr3.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/f658/10826652/87578d2f067d/gr4.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/f658/10826652/d4c557553c82/gr5.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/f658/10826652/00fcac913577/gr6.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/f658/10826652/6bc37e3c6ef9/gr7.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/f658/10826652/49f2132bb4d8/gr8.jpg

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本文引用的文献

1
Exploring policy options to transform traditional dairy system in Ethiopia: A system dynamics approach.探索转变埃塞俄比亚传统乳制品系统的政策选择:一种系统动力学方法。
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2
Quantitative value chain approaches for animal health and food safety.动物健康和食品安全的量化价值链方法。
Food Microbiol. 2018 Oct;75:103-113. doi: 10.1016/j.fm.2017.09.018. Epub 2017 Sep 30.