University of Connecticut, Department of Marine Sciences, Groton, CT, 06340, USA.
Climate & Global Dynamics Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, 80305, USA.
Nat Commun. 2024 Jan 31;15(1):900. doi: 10.1038/s41467-024-45016-5.
The ability to anticipate marine habitat shifts responding to climate variability has high scientific and socioeconomic value. Here we quantify interannual-to-decadal predictability of habitat shifts by combining trait-based aerobic habitat constraints with a suite of initialized retrospective Earth System Model forecasts, for diverse marine ecotypes in the North American Large Marine Ecosystems. We find that aerobic habitat viability, defined by joint constraints of temperature and oxygen on organismal energy balance, is potentially predictable in the upper-600 m ocean, showing a substantial improvement over a simple persistence forecast. The skillful multiyear predictability is dominated by the oxygen component in most ecosystems, yielding higher predictability than previously estimated based on temperature alone. Notable predictability differences exist among ecotypes differing in temperature sensitivity of hypoxia vulnerability, especially along the northeast coast with predictability timescale ranging from 2 to 10 years. This tool will be critical in predicting marine habitat shifts in face of a changing climate.
预测海洋生境变化以应对气候变化的能力具有很高的科学和社会经济价值。在这里，我们通过将基于特征的需氧生境限制与一系列初始化的回溯地球系统模型预测相结合，对北美的大型海洋生态系统中不同海洋生态类型的生境变化的年际到十年际可预测性进行了量化。我们发现，有氧生境的生存能力（由温度和氧气对生物体能量平衡的联合限制定义）在海洋上层 600 米内具有潜在的可预测性，与简单的持续预测相比有了显著提高。在大多数生态系统中，这种多年度的高预测能力主要归因于氧气成分，其预测能力高于以前仅基于温度估计的结果。在缺氧脆弱性对温度敏感性不同的生态类型之间存在显著的可预测性差异，特别是在东北海岸，其可预测时间尺度为 2 至 10 年。在面对气候变化时，这种工具对于预测海洋生境变化至关重要。
