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物种重新分布导致多物种渔业在预期气候变化下产生不平等结果。

Species redistribution creates unequal outcomes for multispecies fisheries under projected climate change.

机构信息

Ocean Associates Inc., under contract to the Northwest Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries Service, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, 2725 Montlake Blvd. E., Seattle, WA 98112, USA.

NRC Research Associateship Program, Northwest Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries Service, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, 2725 Montlake Blvd. E., Seattle, WA 98112, USA.

出版信息

Sci Adv. 2023 Aug 18;9(33):eadg5468. doi: 10.1126/sciadv.adg5468.

Abstract

Climate change drives species distribution shifts, affecting the availability of resources people rely upon for food and livelihoods. These impacts are complex, manifest at local scales, and have diverse effects across multiple species. However, for wild capture fisheries, current understanding is dominated by predictions for individual species at coarse spatial scales. We show that species-specific responses to localized environmental changes will alter the collection of co-occurring species within established fishing footprints along the U.S. West Coast. We demonstrate that availability of the most economically valuable, primary target species is highly likely to decline coastwide in response to warming and reduced oxygen concentrations, while availability of the most abundant, secondary target species will potentially increase. A spatial reshuffling of primary and secondary target species suggests regionally heterogeneous opportunities for fishers to adapt by changing where or what they fish. Developing foresight into the collective responses of species at local scales will enable more effective and tangible adaptation pathways for fishing communities.

摘要

气候变化导致物种分布发生变化,影响了人们获取食物和生计所需资源的可获得性。这些影响是复杂的,表现在局部尺度上,并对多种物种产生不同的影响。然而,对于野生捕捞渔业来说,目前的理解主要是基于对个别物种在粗尺度空间上的预测。我们表明,对局部环境变化的特定物种反应将改变在美国西海岸已建立的捕捞足迹内共同出现的物种的集合。我们证明,随着气候变暖以及氧气浓度降低,最具经济价值的主要目标物种的供应极有可能在整个沿海地区下降,而最丰富的次要目标物种的供应则可能增加。主要和次要目标物种的空间重新组合表明,渔民有机会通过改变捕捞地点或捕捞物来适应,从而在不同地区获得不同的机会。对地方尺度上物种的集体反应进行前瞻性研究,将为渔业社区提供更有效和切实可行的适应途径。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/159b/10438463/ca68da8ff7fc/sciadv.adg5468-f1.jpg

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