新冠疫情后欧洲 ADHD 药物的使用情况：追赶还是趋势变化？

ADHD medicine consumption in Europe after COVID-19: catch-up or trend change?

机构信息

Data Science Hub, MEDICE Arzneimittel Pütter GmbH & Co. KG, 58638, Iserlohn, Germany.

Department of Statistics, TU Dortmund University, 44221, Dortmund, Germany.

出版信息

BMC Psychiatry. 2024 Feb 9;24(1):112. doi: 10.1186/s12888-024-05505-9.

BACKGROUND

Although the COVID-19 pandemic and its implications have been associated with mental health services utilization and medication consumption, there is no longitudinal study on the long-term impact on ADHD medication use trends.

METHODS

This study examines the European ADHD medication consumption in 2020 to 2022 compared to the predicted consumption assuming the persistence of pre-pandemic trends. Predictions are calculated using Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) models.

RESULTS

While European ADHD medication sales recorded a drop in 2020, they returned to the predicted level in 2021, even slightly exceeding it. In 2022, we found a clear exceedance of the predicted level by 16.4% on average at country level. Furthermore, the increase in consumption growth in the post-pandemic period (2021-2022) compared to the pre-pandemic period (2014-2019) was significant in 26 of the 28 European countries under consideration.

CONCLUSION

There is strong evidence of a trend change in the ADHD medicine consumption growth throughout Europe after the COVID-19 pandemic.

背景

尽管 COVID-19 大流行及其影响与精神卫生服务的利用和药物使用有关，但目前尚无关于 ADHD 药物使用趋势的长期影响的纵向研究。

方法

本研究考察了 2020 年至 2022 年与假设大流行前趋势持续情况下的预测使用量相比，欧洲 ADHD 药物的使用情况。预测使用量是使用季节性自回归综合移动平均 (SARIMA) 模型计算的。

结果

虽然欧洲 ADHD 药物销售在 2020 年出现下降，但在 2021 年恢复到预测水平，甚至略有超出。在 2022 年，我们发现平均每个国家的实际销售水平比预测水平高出 16.4%。此外，与大流行前时期（2014-2019 年）相比，后大流行时期（2021-2022 年）的 ADHD 药物消费增长率在 28 个欧洲国家中有 26 个显著增加。