Clinician Perception of Likelihood of Death in the Next Year Is Associated With 1-Year Mortality and Hospice Use Among Older Adults Receiving Home Health Care.

Given the complex care needs of older adults receiving home health care (HHC), it is important for HHC clinicians to identify those with limited prognosis who may benefit from a transition to hospice care. To assess the association between HHC clinician-identified likelihood of death and (1) 1-year mortality, and (2) hospice use. Prospective cohort study from the National Health and Aging Trends Study (NHATS) waves 2011-2018, linked to the Outcomes and Assessment Information Set (OASIS) HHC assessment and Medicare data among 915 community-dwelling NHATS respondents. HHC clinician-identified likelihood of death/decline was determined using OASIS item M1034. Multivariable logistic regression was used to assess the association between clinician-identified likelihood of death/decline and 1-year mortality and hospice use. HHC clinicians identified 42% of the sample as at increased risk of decline or death. One year mortality was 22.3% ( = 548), and 15.88% ( = 303) used hospice within 12 months of HHC. HHC clinician-perceived likelihood of death/decline was associated with greater odds of 1-year mortality (odds ratio [OR], 6.57; confidence interval (95% CI), 2.56-16.90) and was associated with greater likelihood of hospice use (OR, 1.61; 95% CI, 1.00-2.62). HHC clinician perception of patients' risk of death or decline is associated with 1-year mortality. A better understanding of HHC patients at high risk for mortality can facilitate improved care planning and identification of homebound older adults who may benefit from hospice.