Occupational Environment Research Center, Medical School, Rafsanjan University of Medical Sciences, Kerman, Iran.
Social Determinants of Health Research Center, Institute for Futures Studies in Health, Kerman University of Medical Sciences, Kerman, Iran.
Sci Rep. 2024 Feb 17;14(1):3980. doi: 10.1038/s41598-024-54679-5.
This study examined the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on marriage, divorce, birth, and death rates using the Poisson regression model and an interrupted time-series Poisson regression model. Before the pandemic, marriage and birth rates were decreasing, while divorce and death rates were increasing, with only the trend in birth rates being statistically significant. The immediate effect of the pandemic was a significant decrease in the divorce rate, but there were non-significant effects on birth and marriage rates. However, in the months following the onset of the pandemic, there was a statistically significant sustained effect on increasing death and divorce rates. Forecasts based on pre-pandemic data showed that by the end of 2020, marriage, divorce, death, and birth rates were higher compared to pre-pandemic levels. In conclusion, the pandemic has greatly impacted society, particularly in terms of death and divorce rates. Birth rates were not immediately affected to the time lag between decisions and actual births. Fear of COVID-19 may have increased death rates as people avoided seeking medical help. Vaccination and effective treatment strategies are vital in reducing the pandemic's impact on mortality. Supporting families financially is important due to the role of economic issues in couples' decisions.
本研究使用泊松回归模型和中断时间序列泊松回归模型，考察了 COVID-19 大流行对婚姻、离婚、出生率和死亡率的影响。在大流行之前，结婚率和出生率呈下降趋势，而离婚率和死亡率呈上升趋势，只有出生率的趋势具有统计学意义。大流行的直接影响是离婚率显著下降，但对出生率和结婚率没有显著影响。然而，在大流行开始后的几个月里，死亡率和离婚率持续上升具有统计学意义。基于大流行前数据的预测显示，到 2020 年底，结婚率、离婚率、死亡率和出生率均高于大流行前水平。总之，大流行对社会产生了巨大影响，尤其是在死亡率和离婚率方面。由于决策和实际生育之间存在时间滞后，出生率并未立即受到影响。人们担心 COVID-19 可能会增加死亡率，因为他们避免寻求医疗帮助。疫苗接种和有效的治疗策略对于降低大流行对死亡率的影响至关重要。由于经济问题在夫妻决策中起作用，因此为家庭提供经济支持很重要。
