Leung-Gagné Josh
Center on Poverty & Inequality, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305, USA.
PNAS Nexus. 2024 Feb 20;3(2):pgae026. doi: 10.1093/pnasnexus/pgae026. eCollection 2024 Feb.
I use data linking counts of homicides by police to police department (PD) and jurisdiction characteristics to estimate benchmarked (i.e. risk-adjusted) police homicide rates in 2008-2017 among the 711 local PDs serving 50,000 or more residents, a sample with demographics resembling all mid-to-large Census places. The benchmarked rate estimates capture PD deadliness by comparing PDs to peers whose officers face similar risks while adjusting for access to trauma care centers to account for differential mortality from deadly force. Compared to existing estimates, differences in benchmarked estimates are more plausibly attributable to policing differences, speaking to whether the force currently used is necessary to maintain safety and public order. I find that the deadliest PDs kill at 6.91 times the benchmarked rate of the least deadly PDs. If the PDs with above-average deadliness instead killed at average rates for a PD facing similar risks, police homicides would decrease by 34.44%. Reducing deadliness to the lowest observed levels would decrease them by 70.04%. These estimates also indicate the percentage of excess police homicides-those unnecessary for maintaining safety-if the baseline agency is assumed to be optimally deadly. Moreover, PD deadliness has a strong, robust association with White/Black segregation and Western regions. Additionally, Black, Hispanic, foreign-born, lower income, and less educated people are disproportionately exposed to deadlier PDs due to the jurisdictions they reside in. Police violence is an important public health concern that is distributed unevenly across US places, contributing to social disparities that disproportionately harm already marginalized communities.
我利用警方提供的各警察部门(PD)的杀人案件数量数据以及辖区特征,来估算2008年至2017年期间,为5万或以上居民服务的711个地方警察部门的基准(即风险调整后)警察杀人率。该样本的人口统计学特征与所有中大型人口普查地区相似。基准率估计通过将各警察部门与其面临类似风险的同行进行比较,并调整创伤护理中心的可及性以考虑致命武力导致的不同死亡率,从而捕捉警察部门的致命程度。与现有估计相比,基准估计的差异更有可能归因于治安差异,这涉及到当前使用的武力对于维护安全和公共秩序是否必要。我发现,最致命的警察部门的杀人率是最不致命的警察部门基准率的6.91倍。如果致命程度高于平均水平的警察部门以面临类似风险的警察部门的平均杀人率杀人,警察杀人案件将减少34.44%。将致命程度降至观察到的最低水平将使其减少70.04%。这些估计还表明了,如果假设基准机构的致命程度处于最优水平,那么额外的警察杀人案件(即维护安全不必要的杀人案件)的百分比。此外,警察部门的致命程度与白人/黑人隔离以及西部地区有着强烈、稳健的关联。此外,黑人、西班牙裔、外国出生、低收入和受教育程度较低的人由于居住的辖区原因,不成比例地面临更致命的警察部门。警察暴力是一个重要的公共卫生问题,在美国各地分布不均,加剧了社会差距,对本已边缘化的社区造成了不成比例的伤害。