Key Research Base of Humanities and Social Sciences of Ministry of Education, Institute of Marine Sustainable Development, Liaoning Normal University, Dalian, 116029, Liaoning, China.
University Collaborative Innovation Center of Marine Economy High-Quality Development of Liaoning Province, Dalian, 116029, Liaoning, China.
Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2024 Mar;31(15):22945-22961. doi: 10.1007/s11356-024-32485-w. Epub 2024 Feb 28.
Under the challenge of global environmental change and rapid development, tremendous risks brought about by natural disasters and human activities have increased environmental pressures for sustainable development. How to improve coastal resilience in the process of urban development has become an important topic in academia. In this study, a variable fuzzy recognition model was used to measure the level of coastal resilience in 17 cities in the Bohai Rim region, and then the kernel density, thiel index, and random forest model were used to explore the spatiotemporal characteristics and influencing factors of coastal resilience. The results show that (1) The overall resilience level of the Bohai Rim region is increasing over time, but at a relatively slow rate. (2) Coastal resilience has significant spatial unevenness, with high-level cities dominated by Tianjin, Qingdao, Yantai, etc. and low-level cities dominated by Cangzhou, Panjin, Yingkou, Binzhou, etc. (3) The influence of economic development, infrastructure, innovation ability, technology investment, and government regulation on coastal resilience decreases in order. Based on the research findings, the study can not only make suggestions for the actual regulation strategy but also provide empirical and theoretical experience for other coastal countries.
在全球环境变化和快速发展的挑战下,自然灾害和人类活动带来的巨大风险增加了可持续发展的环境压力。如何在城市发展过程中提高沿海地区的弹性已成为学术界的一个重要课题。本研究采用可变模糊识别模型对环渤海地区 17 个城市的沿海弹性水平进行了测量,然后利用核密度、泰尔指数和随机森林模型探讨了沿海弹性的时空特征和影响因素。结果表明:(1)环渤海地区的整体弹性水平随时间呈增长趋势,但增长速度相对较慢;(2)沿海弹性具有显著的空间非均匀性,高水平城市以天津、青岛、烟台等城市为主,低水平城市以沧州、盘锦、营口、滨州等城市为主;(3)经济发展、基础设施、创新能力、技术投资和政府监管对沿海弹性的影响依次减小。基于研究结果,本研究不仅可以为实际调控策略提供建议,还可以为其他沿海国家提供经验和理论借鉴。