School of Economics and Management, Nanjing Agricultural University, No. 1 Weigang Road, Nanjing, 210095, People's Republic of China.
Jin Shanbao Institute for Agriculture & Rural Development, Nanjing Agricultural University, No. 1 Weigang Road, Nanjing, 210095, People's Republic of China.
Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2024 Mar;31(15):23037-23054. doi: 10.1007/s11356-024-32584-8. Epub 2024 Feb 28.
As a pivotal element in market mechanisms, carbon trading is increasingly recognized as crucial for achieving China's Carbon Peaking and Carbon Neutrality Goals. This study introduces a comprehensive dynamic model, integrating carbon trading, emissions, economic growth, and green technology innovation, to offer a holistic understanding of the interplay between these domains. Utilizing principles from nonlinear dynamics and chaos theory, the model is adept at simulating various scenarios and assessing the effectiveness of government policies in stabilizing these complex systems. In-depth analysis provided by this research sheds light on the nuanced impact of carbon trading policies on sustainable development. Key findings highlight (1) Carbon trading's essential role as a catalyst in propelling sustainable and high-quality growth. (2) A strong positive relationship is observed between the sophistication of the carbon trading mechanism and its effectiveness in stimulating green technology innovation and fostering high-quality green development. Notably, carbon trading's influence on green technology innovation markedly enhances the efficacy of carbon emission reduction strategies. (3) Government regulations are instrumental in augmenting carbon prices, thus incentivizing increased corporate participation in emission reduction and enhancing the overall impact of carbon emission reduction. Nevertheless, the study identifies a critical threshold in regulatory intensity, beyond which there is a risk of system destabilization ( ). These findings underscore the imperative for developing an integrated national carbon emission trading market, prioritizing sustainable growth strategies and diligently pursuing China's environmental objectives.
作为市场机制的核心要素，碳交易对于实现中国碳达峰碳中和目标的重要性日益凸显。本研究构建了一个综合动态模型，将碳交易、排放、经济增长和绿色技术创新纳入其中，以全面理解这些领域之间的相互作用。该模型运用非线性动力学和混沌理论的原理，擅长模拟各种情景，并评估政府政策在稳定这些复杂系统方面的有效性。本研究提供的深入分析揭示了碳交易政策对可持续发展的细微影响。研究结果强调了碳交易作为推动可持续和高质量增长的催化剂的重要作用；碳交易机制的复杂性与其刺激绿色技术创新和促进高质量绿色发展的有效性之间存在显著的正相关关系；政府法规在提高碳价方面发挥了重要作用，从而激励企业增加减排参与度，并增强了碳减排策略的整体效果。然而，研究也发现了监管强度的关键阈值，超过该阈值存在系统失稳的风险。这些发现突显了建立一个综合的国家碳排放交易市场、优先考虑可持续增长战略以及努力实现中国环境目标的必要性。
