George Noel, Prasad Jang Bahadur, Varghese Elizabeth, Rajesh Richu, Kumar Aravind
Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, KLE University, Belgaum, Karnataka, India.
Department of Statistics, Clinical Trial Unit, University of Edinburgh, UK.
Indian J Community Med. 2024 Jan-Feb;49(1):96-103. doi: 10.4103/ijcm.ijcm_980_22. Epub 2024 Jan 12.
COVID-19 has become a global pandemic, prompting lockdowns in practically every country. To prevent the spread of the disease, India has enforced a rigorous nationwide lockdown that commenced in March 2020. The lockdown imposed amid the pandemic ensured that most commercial activities and vehicle transportation ceased, resulting in a significant reduction in air pollution levels.
The value of air pollutants PM10, PM2.5, NO, and SO from January to May 2020 was obtained from the Indian Central Pollution Control Board. Before lockdown and during lockdown, relative fluctuations in ambient concentrations of four air contaminants were investigated. The Box-Jenkins approach was used to estimate future air pollution data points using time series data analysis.
The PM10 level reduced by 61%, 30%, 68%, 37%, and 43% in the selected cities, respectively. Comparison of other pollutant concentrations before and after the lockdown also found a reduction in ambient pollutant concentrations, resulting in improved air quality. Inference of predicted model values to observed values revealed a significant increase in the concentrations of all pollutants. The percentage increases in AQI from predicted to observed values were 206% in Ghaziabad, 148% in Delhi, 59% in Hyderabad, and 160% in Cochin.
The strict lockdown has resulted in a significant drop in air pollutant levels. Upgrading present technologies could help keep pollution to a minimum of 37% under control. The findings would prompt the government to consider how to strictly reduce vehicle and industrial pollution to improve air quality and maintain improved public health.
新冠疫情已成为全球大流行，几乎促使每个国家都实施了封锁措施。为防止疾病传播，印度于2020年3月开始在全国范围内实施严格的封锁。疫情期间实施的封锁确保了大多数商业活动和车辆运输停止，导致空气污染水平大幅下降。
2020年1月至5月空气污染物PM10、PM2.5、NO和SO的值取自印度中央污染控制委员会。在封锁前和封锁期间，对四种空气污染物的环境浓度相对波动情况进行了调查。采用Box-Jenkins方法，利用时间序列数据分析来估计未来的空气污染数据点。
所选城市的PM10水平分别下降了61%、30%、68%、37%和43%。对封锁前后其他污染物浓度的比较也发现环境污染物浓度有所降低，空气质量得到改善。预测模型值与观测值的推断显示所有污染物的浓度都有显著增加。从预测值到观测值，ghaziabad的空气质量指数（AQI）增加了206%，德里增加了148%，海得拉巴增加了59%，科钦增加了160%。
严格的封锁导致空气污染物水平显著下降。升级现有技术有助于将污染控制在最低37%的水平。这些发现将促使政府考虑如何严格减少车辆和工业污染，以改善空气质量并维持公众健康状况的改善。
