Major depressive disorder (MDD) is associated with functional disturbances in subcortical regions. In this naturalistic prospective study (NCT03294525), we aimed to investigate relationships among subcortical functional connectivity (FC), mood symptom profiles and treatment outcome in MDD using multivariate methods. Medication-free participants with MDD (n = 135) underwent a functional magnetic resonance imaging scan at baseline and completed posttreatment clinical assessment after 8 weeks of antidepressant monotherapy. We used partial least squares (PLS) correlation analysis to explore the association between subcortical FC and mood symptom profiles. FC score, reflecting the weighted representation of each individual in this association, was computed. Replication analysis was undertaken in an independent sample (n = 74). We also investigated the relationship between FC score and treatment outcome in the main sample. A distinctive subcortical connectivity pattern was found to be associated with negative affect. In general, higher FC between the caudate, putamen and thalamus was associated with greater negative affect. This association was partly replicated in the independent sample (similarity between the two samples: r = 0.66 for subcortical connectivity, r = 0.75 for mood symptom profile). Lower FC score predicted both remission and response to treatment after 8 weeks of antidepressant monotherapy. The emphasis here on the role of dorsal striatum and thalamus consolidates prior work of subcortical connectivity in MDD. The findings provide insight into the pathogenesis of MDD, linking subcortical FC with negative affect. However, while the FC score significantly predicted treatment outcome, the low odds ratio suggests that finding predictive biomarkers for depression remains an aspiration.