Department of Surgery, Suixi County Hospital, Anhui, China; Department of Hepatobiliary and Pancreatic Surgery, Fuyang People's Hospital, Anhui Medical University, Fuyang, China.
Department of Hepatobiliary and Pancreatic Surgery, Fuyang People's Hospital, Anhui Medical University, Fuyang, China.
J Gastrointest Surg. 2024 Feb;28(2):121-131. doi: 10.1016/j.gassur.2023.12.001. Epub 2024 Feb 5.
Global aging is increasing; however, the epidemiologic characteristics of pancreatic cancer in older adults have not been systematically studied.
This study used data on pancreatic cancer in older adults from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 project. Temporal trends were measured using average annual percentage change and predicted using a Bayesian age-period-cohort model. In addition, the inequality slope index and the health concentration index scores were calculated to quantify the unequal distribution of the burden of pancreatic cancer in older adults.
Between 1990 and 2019, the number of pancreatic cancer deaths in older adults, age-standardized death rate (ASDR), disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and age-standardized DALY rate increased globally. In 2019, ASDR and age-standardized DALY rate for pancreatic cancer in older adults were the highest in Southern Latin America, whereas the burden has grown the fastest over the past 30 years in the Caribbean. The burden is predominantly distributed among those aged 65 to 74 years, with males having a higher burden than that of females. The global proportion of pancreatic cancer deaths in older adults attributed to smoking, high fasting plasma glucose, and high body mass index were 21.7%, 10.3%, and 5.8%, respectively. Both absolute and relative cross-national inequalities declined over the past 30 years but remained at medium-high levels of relative inequality. Deaths from pancreatic cancer among older adults are expected to continue to increase over the next 11 years.
The global burden of pancreatic cancer among older adults has continued to rise over the past 30 years, and cross-national health inequalities remain high. Therefore, targeted measures must be taken to address this inequality.
全球老龄化正在加剧；然而，老年人胰腺癌的流行病学特征尚未得到系统研究。
本研究使用 2019 年全球疾病负担项目中有关老年人胰腺癌的数据。使用平均年百分比变化来衡量时间趋势，并使用贝叶斯年龄-时期-队列模型进行预测。此外，还计算了不平等斜率指数和健康集中指数得分，以量化老年人胰腺癌负担的不平等分布。
1990 年至 2019 年期间，全球老年人胰腺癌死亡人数、年龄标准化死亡率（ASDR）、伤残调整生命年（DALYs）和年龄标准化 DALY 率均有所增加。2019 年，南拉丁美洲老年人胰腺癌的 ASDR 和年龄标准化 DALY 率最高，而在过去 30 年中，加勒比地区的负担增长最快。负担主要分布在 65 至 74 岁的人群中，男性的负担高于女性。全球老年人胰腺癌死亡归因于吸烟、空腹血糖高和体重指数高的比例分别为 21.7%、10.3%和 5.8%。过去 30 年来，绝对和相对跨国不平等程度均有所下降，但仍处于相对不平等的中高水平。未来 11 年，老年人胰腺癌死亡人数预计将继续增加。
过去 30 年来，全球老年人胰腺癌负担持续上升，跨国健康不平等仍然很高。因此，必须采取有针对性的措施来解决这一不平等问题。
