Yu Jiangtao, Liu Chunlong, Zhang Jian, Wang Xiangyu, Song Kun, Wu Panpan, Liu Fubao
Department of General Surgery, The First Affiliated Hospital of Anhui Medical University, Hefei 230000, China.
Department of Hepatobiliary and Pancreatic Surgery, Fuyang People's Hospital, Anhui Medical University, Fuyang 236000, China.
Prev Med Rep. 2024 Apr 11;41:102722. doi: 10.1016/j.pmedr.2024.102722. eCollection 2024 May.
To describe the past, present and future burden of pancreatitis in older adults, and to explore cross-national inequalities across socio-demographic index (SDI).
Data on pancreatitis in older adults, including mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) rates, were collected from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2019 study. Temporal trends were measured using joinpoint analyses and predicted using a Bayesian age-period-cohort model. Additionally, the unequal distribution of the burden of pancreatitis in older adults was quantified.
From 1990 to 2019, the number of deaths and DALYs due to pancreatitis in older adults has been increasing annually. However, in most regions of the world, age-standardized death rates (ASDR) and age-standardized DALYs rates have been declining. The burden of pancreatitis in older adults was highest in low SDI region, primarily affecting the population aged 65-74, with a greater burden on males than females. Furthermore, from 1990 to 2019, absolute and relative cross-national inequalities in pancreatitis among older adults have remained largely unchanged. It is projected that in the next 11 years, the number of deaths in older adults due to pancreatitis will continue to increase, but the ASDR is expected to decline.
Over the past 30 years, the ASDR and age-standardized DALYs rate of pancreatitis in older adults have shown a decline globally, but the absolute burden continues to increase. Cross-national health inequalities persist. Therefore, it is necessary to develop targeted intervention measures and enhance awareness among this vulnerable population regarding the risk factors associated with pancreatitis.
描述老年人胰腺炎的过去、现在和未来负担，并探讨社会人口指数（SDI）方面的跨国不平等情况。
从《2019年全球疾病负担》（GBD）研究中收集老年人胰腺炎的数据，包括死亡率和伤残调整生命年（DALYs）率。使用连接点分析测量时间趋势，并使用贝叶斯年龄-时期-队列模型进行预测。此外，对老年人胰腺炎负担的不平等分布进行了量化。
从1990年到2019年，老年人因胰腺炎导致的死亡人数和DALYs每年都在增加。然而，在世界上大多数地区，年龄标准化死亡率（ASDR）和年龄标准化DALYs率一直在下降。低SDI地区老年人胰腺炎负担最高，主要影响65-74岁人群，男性负担比女性更重。此外，从1990年到2019年，老年人胰腺炎的绝对和相对跨国不平等情况基本保持不变。预计在未来11年，老年人因胰腺炎导致的死亡人数将继续增加，但ASDR预计会下降。
在过去30年里，全球老年人胰腺炎的ASDR和年龄标准化DALYs率呈下降趋势，但绝对负担持续增加。跨国健康不平等现象依然存在。因此，有必要制定有针对性的干预措施，并提高这一弱势群体对与胰腺炎相关风险因素的认识。
