Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, Xiangya School of Public Health, Central South University, Changsha, Hunan, China.
Department of Nephrology, Xiangya Hospital, Central South University, Changsha, Hunan, China.
Brain Behav. 2024 Mar;14(3):e3456. doi: 10.1002/brb3.3456.
BACKGROUND: As the population ages, mild cognitive impairment (MCI) and type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) become common conditions that often coexist. Evidence has shown that MCI could lead to reduced treatment compliance, medication management, and self-care ability in T2DM patients. Therefore, early identification of those with increased risk of MCI is crucial from a preventive perspective. Given the growing utilization of decision trees in prediction of health-related outcomes, this study aimed to identify MCI in T2DM patients using the decision tree approach. METHODS: This hospital-based case-control study was performed in the Endocrinology Department of Xiangya Hospital affiliated to Central South University between March 2021 and December 2022. MCI was defined based on the Petersen criteria. Demographic characteristics, lifestyle factors, and T2DM-related information were collected. The study sample was randomly divided into the training and validation sets in a 7:3 ratio. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed, and a decision tree model was established using the chi-square automatic interaction detection (CHAID) algorithm to identify key predictor variables associated with MCI. The area under the curve (AUC) value was used to evaluate the performance of the established decision tree model, and the performance of multivariate regression model was also evaluated for comparison. RESULTS: A total of 1001 participants (705 in the training set and 296 in the validation set) were included in this study. The mean age of participants in the training and validation sets was 60.2 ± 10.3 and 60.4 ± 9.5 years, respectively. There were no significant differences in the characteristics between the training and validation sets (p > .05). The CHAID decision tree analysis identified six key predictor variables associated with MCI, including age, educational level, household income, regular physical activity, diabetic nephropathy, and diabetic retinopathy. The established decision tree model had 15 nodes composed of 4 layers, and age is the most significant predictor variable. It performed well (AUC = .75 [95% confidence interval (CI): .71-.78] and .67 [95% CI: .61-.74] in the training and validation sets, respectively), was internally validated, and had comparable predictive value compared to the multivariate logistic regression model (AUC = .76 [95% CI: .72-.80] and .69 [95% CI: .62-.75] in the training and validation sets, respectively). CONCLUSION: The established decision tree model based on age, educational level, household income, regular physical activity, diabetic nephropathy, and diabetic retinopathy performed well with comparable predictive value compared to the multivariate logistic regression model and was internally validated. Due to its superior classification accuracy and simple presentation as well as interpretation of collected data, the decision tree model is more recommended for the prediction of MCI in T2DM patients in clinical practice.
背景:随着人口老龄化,轻度认知障碍(MCI)和 2 型糖尿病(T2DM)成为常见的并存病症。有证据表明,MCI 可能导致 T2DM 患者的治疗依从性、药物管理和自我护理能力下降。因此,从预防的角度来看,早期识别那些有更高 MCI 风险的人至关重要。鉴于决策树在预测健康相关结果方面的应用日益增多,本研究旨在使用决策树方法识别 T2DM 患者中的 MCI。
方法:这是一项 2021 年 3 月至 2022 年 12 月在中南大学湘雅医院内分泌科进行的基于医院的病例对照研究。MCI 根据彼得森标准定义。收集人口统计学特征、生活方式因素和 T2DM 相关信息。研究样本以 7:3 的比例随机分为训练集和验证集。进行单变量和多变量分析,并使用卡方自动交互检测(CHAID)算法建立决策树模型,以确定与 MCI 相关的关键预测变量。使用曲线下面积(AUC)值评估建立的决策树模型的性能,并比较多变量回归模型的性能。
结果:共有 1001 名参与者(训练集 705 名,验证集 296 名)纳入本研究。训练集和验证集参与者的平均年龄分别为 60.2±10.3 岁和 60.4±9.5 岁。两组的特征无显著差异(p>.05)。CHAID 决策树分析确定了与 MCI 相关的六个关键预测变量,包括年龄、教育程度、家庭收入、有规律的体育活动、糖尿病肾病和糖尿病视网膜病变。建立的决策树模型有 15 个节点,由 4 层组成,年龄是最重要的预测变量。它表现良好(训练集 AUC=0.75[95%置信区间(CI):0.71-0.78]和验证集 AUC=0.67[95%CI:0.61-0.74]),经过内部验证,与多变量逻辑回归模型具有可比的预测价值(训练集 AUC=0.76[95%CI:0.72-0.80]和验证集 AUC=0.69[95%CI:0.62-0.75])。
结论:基于年龄、教育程度、家庭收入、有规律的体育活动、糖尿病肾病和糖尿病视网膜病变的决策树模型表现良好,与多变量逻辑回归模型具有可比的预测价值,并且经过内部验证。由于其具有较高的分类准确性以及对收集数据的简单呈现和解释,决策树模型更推荐用于临床实践中 T2DM 患者 MCI 的预测。
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