Yu Wenhua, Xu Rongbin, Ye Tingting, Abramson Michael J, Morawska Lidia, Jalaludin Bin, Johnston Fay H, Henderson Sarah B, Knibbs Luke D, Morgan Geoffrey G, Lavigne Eric, Heyworth Jane, Hales Simon, Marks Guy B, Woodward Alistair, Bell Michelle L, Samet Jonathan M, Song Jiangning, Li Shanshan, Guo Yuming
Climate, Air Quality Research Unit, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC, Australia.
International Laboratory for Air Quality and Health, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, QLD, Australia.
Lancet Planet Health. 2024 Mar;8(3):e146-e155. doi: 10.1016/S2542-5196(24)00003-2.
The acute health effects of short-term (hours to days) exposure to fine particulate matter (PM) have been well documented; however, the global mortality burden attributable to this exposure has not been estimated. We aimed to estimate the global, regional, and urban mortality burden associated with short-term exposure to PM and the spatiotemporal variations in this burden from 2000 to 2019.
We combined estimated global daily PM concentrations, annual population counts, country-level mortality rates, and epidemiologically derived exposure-response functions to estimate the mortality attributable to short-term PM exposure from 2000 to 2019, in the continental regions and in 13 189 urban centres worldwide at a spatial resolution of 0·1° × 0·1°. We tested the robustness of our mortality estimates with different theoretical minimum risk exposure levels, lag effects, and exposure-response functions.
Approximately 1 million (95% CI 690 000-1·3 million) premature deaths per year from 2000 to 2019 were attributable to short-term PM exposure, representing 2·08% (1·41-2·75) of total global deaths or 17 (11-22) premature deaths per 100 000 population. Annually, 0·23 million (0·15 million-0·30 million) deaths attributable to short-term PM exposure were in urban areas, constituting 22·74% of the total global deaths attributable to this cause and accounting for 2·30% (1·56-3·05) of total global deaths in urban areas. The sensitivity analyses showed that our worldwide estimates of mortality attributed to short-term PM exposure were robust.
Short-term exposure to PM contributes a substantial global mortality burden, particularly in Asia and Africa, as well as in global urban areas. Our results highlight the importance of mitigation strategies to reduce short-term exposure to air pollution and its adverse effects on human health.
Australian Research Council and the Australian National Health and Medical Research Council.
短期（数小时至数天）暴露于细颗粒物（PM）对健康的急性影响已有充分记录；然而，尚未对归因于这种暴露的全球死亡负担进行估计。我们旨在估计与短期暴露于PM相关的全球、区域和城市死亡负担，以及2000年至2019年期间该负担的时空变化。
我们结合了估计的全球每日PM浓度、年度人口计数、国家层面的死亡率以及从流行病学得出的暴露-反应函数，以估计2000年至2019年期间在各大洲区域以及全球13189个城市中心因短期PM暴露导致的死亡率，空间分辨率为0.1°×0.1°。我们用不同的理论最低风险暴露水平、滞后效应和暴露-反应函数测试了我们死亡率估计值的稳健性。
2000年至2019年期间，每年约有100万（95%可信区间69万-130万）例过早死亡归因于短期PM暴露，占全球总死亡人数的2.08%（1.41%-2.75%），即每10万人中有17例（11-22例）过早死亡。每年，城市地区有23万（15万-30万）例死亡归因于短期PM暴露，占全球归因于此原因的总死亡人数的22.74%，占全球城市地区总死亡人数的2.30%（1.56%-3.05%）。敏感性分析表明，我们对全球短期PM暴露导致的死亡率估计是稳健的。
短期暴露于PM造成了巨大的全球死亡负担，特别是在亚洲和非洲以及全球城市地区。我们的结果凸显了减轻策略对于减少短期空气污染暴露及其对人类健康的不利影响的重要性。
澳大利亚研究理事会和澳大利亚国家卫生与医学研究理事会。
