Department of Industrial Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Tarsus University, Tarsus, 33400, Mersin, Turkey.
Department of Industrial Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Cukurova University, Sarıçam, 01250, Adana, Turkey.
Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2024 Apr;31(18):26790-26805. doi: 10.1007/s11356-024-32733-z. Epub 2024 Mar 8.
The increase in the use of Renewable Energy Sources (RES) provides many advantages such as reducing the environmental problems and sustainability. In this study, a long-term optimum RES settlement strategic plan is conducted for 81 provinces in Turkey by considering real data. Biomass energy, solar energy, hydroelectric energy, geothermal energy, and wind energy are considered RES sources. Energy consumption until the 2050 year is estimated with the regARIMA method, and then a weighted goal programming model was developed in which the outputs of the regARIMA method and risk analysis are integrated. The results of the regARIMA method are tested, and the test results indicate that an R value close to 1 indicates that the model is suitable, a low and negative MPE value is neutral, and a MAPE value below 4% indicates high accuracy of the model. Using GAMS 23.5 optimization software program, the developed weighted goal programming model is solved optimally. In this integrated model developed, the objectives of minimizing the installation time, minimizing the investment cost, minimizing the annual cost, maximizing the carbon emission reduction, maximizing the usage time, and minimizing the risk are considered. When the results obtained regarding the number of installations according to the model are examined, the decisions are made for 53% wind energy, 23% biomass energy, 13% hydroelectric energy, 9% solar energy, and 2% geothermal energy. Computational results show that the effective solutions are obtained by minimizing the sum of goals values, covering all provinces in Turkey, and considering real data.
可再生能源（RES）的使用增加提供了许多优势，例如减少环境问题和可持续性。在这项研究中，通过考虑实际数据，为土耳其的 81 个省进行了长期的最优 RES 解决方案战略规划。生物质能、太阳能、水能、地热能和风能被视为可再生能源来源。使用 regARIMA 方法估计到 2050 年的能源消耗，然后开发了一个加权目标规划模型，该模型集成了 regARIMA 方法和风险分析的输出。regARIMA 方法的结果经过测试，测试结果表明接近 1 的 R 值表示模型合适，低且负的 MPE 值表示中性，低于 4%的 MAPE 值表示模型具有高准确性。使用 GAMS 23.5 优化软件程序，最优地解决了开发的加权目标规划模型。在开发的这个综合模型中，考虑了最小化安装时间、最小化投资成本、最小化年度成本、最大化碳减排、最大化使用时间和最小化风险的目标。当根据模型检查获得的安装数量结果时，决定了 53%的风能、23%的生物质能、13%的水能、9%的太阳能和 2%的地热能。计算结果表明，通过最小化目标值的总和，可以获得有效的解决方案，涵盖了土耳其的所有省份，并考虑了实际数据。
