International Center for Climate and Environment Sciences, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100029, China.
University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100049, China.
Int J Biometeorol. 2022 Oct;66(10):2091-2104. doi: 10.1007/s00484-022-02343-w. Epub 2022 Aug 6.
The evident climate jump after 2000 in China may have greatly influenced the production of winter wheat, which is one of the nation's major grain crops. To evaluate the impacts of climate change on winter wheat production and identify the climatic factors primarily responsible, we used daily meteorological data from 2244 stations and integrated indicators to examine the decadal changes in the potential plantable zone (PPZ), growth periods, and climatic suitability for winter wheat in China from 1985 to 1999 and from 2000 to 2014. The results showed the following: (1) The PPZ has decreased by approximately 9%, and the main reason may be the increased frequency of extreme cold events in northern China from 2000 to 2014. (2) In most of the PPZ, the suitable sowing date has been delayed, the potential maturity date has advanced, and total days during the potential growing season have significantly decreased because of the increasing temperature. (3) The suitable area and optimal area of winter wheat have significantly decreased by 9% and 13%, respectively. The changes in climatic suitability are affected by both temperature and radiation in the north, whereas the impact is more from precipitation in the south. The climate may be changing in a direction unsuitable for winter wheat. As global warming and climate extremes intensify in the future, winter wheat production may become more challenging, and adequate measures should be adopted to guarantee reliable and high yields.
中国 2000 年后明显的气候跳跃可能极大地影响了冬小麦的生产，冬小麦是中国主要的粮食作物之一。为了评估气候变化对冬小麦生产的影响，并确定主要的气候因素，我们使用了 1985 年至 1999 年和 2000 年至 2014 年来自 2244 个站点的每日气象数据和综合指标，研究了中国冬小麦潜在种植区（PPZ）、生长季和气候适宜性的十年变化。结果表明：（1）PPZ 减少了约 9%，主要原因可能是 2000 年至 2014 年中国北方极端寒冷事件的发生频率增加。（2）在大多数 PPZ 中，由于气温升高，适宜播种日期推迟，潜在成熟日期提前，潜在生长季总天数显著减少。（3）冬小麦适宜区和最适宜区分别显著减少了 9%和 13%。气候适宜性的变化受到北方温度和辐射的影响，而南方则更多地受到降水的影响。气候可能朝着不利于冬小麦生长的方向变化。随着未来全球变暖加剧和气候极端事件的增多，冬小麦生产可能会变得更加具有挑战性，应采取充分措施确保可靠和高产。
