Calculation of protein-ligand binding entropies using a rule-based molecular fingerprint.

The use of fast in silico prediction methods for protein-ligand binding free energies holds significant promise for the initial phases of drug development. Numerous traditional physics-based models (e.g., implicit solvent models), however, tend to either neglect or heavily approximate entropic contributions to binding due to their computational complexity. Consequently, such methods often yield imprecise assessments of binding strength. Machine learning models provide accurate predictions and can often outperform physics-based models. They, however, are often prone to overfitting, and the interpretation of their results can be difficult. Physics-guided machine learning models combine the consistency of physics-based models with the accuracy of modern data-driven algorithms. This work integrates physics-based model conformational entropies into a graph convolutional network. We introduce a new neural network architecture (a rule-based graph convolutional network) that generates molecular fingerprints according to predefined rules specifically optimized for binding free energy calculations. Our results on 100 small host-guest systems demonstrate significant improvements in convergence and preventing overfitting. We additionally demonstrate the transferability of our proposed hybrid model by training it on the aforementioned host-guest systems and then testing it on six unrelated protein-ligand systems. Our new model shows little difference in training set accuracy compared to a previous model but an order-of-magnitude improvement in test set accuracy. Finally, we show how the results of our hybrid model can be interpreted in a straightforward fashion.