Medical Centre for Digestive Diseases, The Second Affiliated Hospital of Nanjing Medical University.
Department of Gastroenterology, The Affiliated Yixing Hospital of Jiangsu University, Yixing.
Int J Surg. 2024 Jun 1;110(6):3470-3479. doi: 10.1097/JS9.0000000000001295.
BACKGROUND: In colorectal cancer (CRC), tumor deposits (TD) have been used to guide the N staging only in node-negative patients. It remains unknown about the prognostic value of TD in combination with positive lymph node ratio (LNR) in stage III CRC. PATIENTS AND METHODS: The authors analyzed data from 31 139 eligible patients diagnosed with stage III CRC, including 30 230 from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database as a training set and 909 from two Chinese hospitals as a validation set. The associations of TD and LNR with cancer-specific survival (CSS) and overall survival (OS) were evaluated using the Kaplan-Meier method and Cox regression models. RESULTS: Both TD-positive and high LNR (value ≥0.4) were associated with worse CSS in the training [multivariable hazard ratio (HR), 1.50; 95% CI: 1.43-1.58 and HR, 1.74; 95% CI: 1.62-1.86, respectively] and validation sets (HR, 1.90; 95% CI: 1.41-2.54 and HR, 2.01; 95% CI: 1.29-3.15, respectively). Compared to patients with TD-negative and low LNR (value<0.4), those with TD-positive and high LNR had a 4.09-fold risk of CRC-specific death in the training set (HR, 4.09; 95% CI: 3.54-4.72) and 4.60-fold risk in the validation set (HR, 4.60; 95% CI: 2.88-7.35). Patients with TD-positive/H-LNR CRC on the right side had the worst prognosis ( P <0.001). The combined variable of TD and LNR contributed the most to CSS prediction in the training (24.26%) and validation (32.31%) sets. A nomogram including TD and LNR showed satisfactory discriminative ability, and calibration curves indicated favorable consistency in both the training and validation sets. CONCLUSIONS: TD and LNR represent independent prognostic predictors for stage III CRC. A combination of TD and LNR could be used to identify those at high-risk of CRC deaths.
背景:在结直肠癌(CRC)中,肿瘤沉积物(TD)仅用于指导淋巴结阴性患者的 N 分期。在 III 期 CRC 中,TD 与阳性淋巴结比率(LNR)联合对预后的价值尚不清楚。
患者与方法:作者分析了 31139 例符合条件的 III 期 CRC 患者的数据,其中 30230 例来自监测、流行病学和最终结果(SEER)数据库作为训练集,909 例来自两家中国医院作为验证集。采用 Kaplan-Meier 法和 Cox 回归模型评估 TD 和 LNR 与癌症特异性生存(CSS)和总生存(OS)的关系。
结果:在训练集[多变量风险比(HR)1.50;95%CI:1.43-1.58 和 HR,1.74;95%CI:1.62-1.86]和验证集[HR,1.90;95%CI:1.41-2.54 和 HR,2.01;95%CI:1.29-3.15]中,TD 阳性和高 LNR(值≥0.4)均与 CSS 较差相关。与 TD 阴性和低 LNR(值<0.4)的患者相比,TD 阳性和高 LNR 的患者在训练集中发生 CRC 特异性死亡的风险增加了 4.09 倍(HR,4.09;95%CI:3.54-4.72),在验证集中增加了 4.60 倍(HR,4.60;95%CI:2.88-7.35)。右侧 TD 阳性/H-LNR CRC 患者的预后最差(P<0.001)。在训练集(24.26%)和验证集(32.31%)中,TD 和 LNR 的组合变量对 CSS 预测的贡献最大。包括 TD 和 LNR 的列线图显示出良好的区分能力,校准曲线表明在训练集和验证集中具有良好的一致性。
结论:TD 和 LNR 是 III 期 CRC 的独立预后预测因子。TD 和 LNR 的组合可用于识别 CRC 死亡风险较高的患者。
Tech Coloproctol. 2024-8-23
J Cancer Res Clin Oncol. 2015-2
J Gastrointest Oncol. 2025-4-30