Mittal H V R, Hammoud Mohamad Abed El Rahman, Carrasco Ana K, Hoteit Ibrahim, Knio Omar M
Computer, Electrical and Mathematical Sciences and Engineering Division, King Abdullah University of Science and Technology (KAUST), 23955-6900, Thuwal, Saudi Arabia.
Department of Mathematics, Indian Institute of Technology Ropar, Rupnagar, Punjab, 140001, India.
Sci Rep. 2024 Mar 19;14(1):6623. doi: 10.1038/s41598-024-57048-4.
A risk analysis is conducted considering an array of release sources located around the NEOM shoreline. The sources are selected close to the coast and in neighboring regions of high marine traffic. The evolution of oil spills released by these sources is simulated using the MOHID model, driven by validated, high-resolution met-ocean fields of the Red Sea. For each source, simulations are conducted over a 4-week period, starting from first, tenth and twentieth days of each month, covering five consecutive years. A total of 180 simulations are thus conducted for each source location, adequately reflecting the variability of met-ocean conditions in the region. The risk associated with each source is described in terms of amount of oil beached, and by the time required for the spilled oil to reach the NEOM coast, extending from the Gulf of Aqaba in the North to Duba in the South. To further characterize the impact of individual sources, a finer analysis is performed by segmenting the NEOM shoreline, based on important coastal development and installation sites. For each subregion, source and release event considered, a histogram of the amount of volume beached is generated, also classifying individual events in terms of the corresponding arrival times. In addition, for each subregion considered, an inverse analysis is conducted to identify regions of dependence of the cumulative risk, estimated using the collection of all sources and events considered. The transport of oil around the NEOM shorelines is promoted by chaotic circulations and northwest winds in summer, and a dominant cyclonic eddy in winter. Hence, spills originating from release sources located close to the NEOM shorelines are characterized by large monthly variations in arrival times, ranging from less than a week to more than 2 weeks. Similarly, large variations in the volume fraction of beached oil, ranging from less then 50% to more than 80% are reported. The results of this study provide key information regarding the location of dominant oil spill risk sources, the severity of the potential release events, as well as the time frames within which mitigation actions may need to deployed.
进行了一项风险分析，考虑了位于新奥（NEOM）海岸线周围的一系列排放源。这些源被选在靠近海岸以及海上交通繁忙的邻近区域。利用红海经过验证的高分辨率海洋气象场驱动的MOHID模型，模拟了这些源泄漏的石油的扩散情况。对于每个源，从每个月的第一天、第十天和第二十天开始，进行为期4周的模拟，涵盖连续五年。因此，每个源位置总共进行了180次模拟，充分反映了该地区海洋气象条件的变化。每个源的风险通过搁浅的油量以及泄漏的油到达新奥海岸所需的时间来描述，新奥海岸从北部的亚喀巴湾延伸至南部的杜巴。为了进一步刻画各个源的影响，基于重要的海岸开发和设施地点对新奥海岸线进行细分，从而进行更精细的分析。对于每个考虑的子区域、源和释放事件，生成搁浅油量的直方图，并根据相应的到达时间对各个事件进行分类。此外，对于每个考虑的子区域，进行反向分析以确定累积风险的依赖区域，累积风险是使用所有考虑的源和事件的集合来估计的。夏季，新奥海岸线周围石油的运输受到混沌环流和西北风的推动，冬季则受到一个主要的气旋涡旋的影响。因此，源自靠近新奥海岸线的排放源的泄漏具有到达时间每月变化很大的特点，从不到一周到超过两周不等。同样，据报道搁浅油的体积分数变化也很大，从不到50%到超过80%。本研究的结果提供了关于主要溢油风险源的位置、潜在释放事件的严重程度以及可能需要部署缓解行动的时间框架的关键信息。
