Red de Biología Evolutiva, Instituto de Ecología, A.C. (INECOL), Xalapa, Veracruz, Mexico.
Instituto de Ciencias Básicas, Universidad Veracruzana, Xalapa, Veracruz, Mexico.
Environ Monit Assess. 2024 Mar 23;196(4):392. doi: 10.1007/s10661-024-12543-z.
Climate change is one of the main factors affecting biodiversity worldwide at an alarming rate. In addition to increases in global extreme weather events, melting of polar ice caps, and subsequent sea level rise, climate change might shift the geographic distribution of species. In recent years, interest in understanding the effects of climate change on species distribution has increased, including species which depend greatly on forest cover for survival, such as strictly arboreal primates. Here, we generate a series of species distribution models (SDMs) to evaluate future projections under different climate change scenarios on the distribution of the black howler monkey (Alouatta pigra), an endemic endangered primate species. Using SDMs, we assessed current and future projections of their potential distribution for three Social Economic Paths (SSPs) for the years 2030, 2050, 2070, and 2090. Specifically, we found that precipitation seasonality (BIO15, 30.8%), isothermality (BIO3, 25.4%), and mean diurnal range (BIO2, 19.7.%) are the main factors affecting A. pigra distribution. The future climate change models suggested a decrease in the potential distribution of A. pigra by projected scenarios (from - 1.23 to - 12.66%). The highly suitable area was the most affected above all in the more pessimist scenario most likely related to habitat fragmentation. Our study provides new insights into the potential future distribution and suitable habitats of Alouatta pigra. Such information could be used by local communities, governments, and non-governmental organizations for conservation planning of this primate species.
气候变化是影响全球生物多样性的主要因素之一，其影响速度令人担忧。除了全球极端天气事件的增加、极地冰盖融化以及随后的海平面上升之外，气候变化还可能改变物种的地理分布。近年来，人们对了解气候变化对物种分布的影响越来越感兴趣，其中包括那些严重依赖森林覆盖生存的物种，如严格树栖的灵长类动物。在这里，我们生成了一系列物种分布模型（SDM），以评估不同气候变化情景下未来对黑吼猴（Alouatta pigra）分布的预测，黑吼猴是一种特有的濒危灵长类物种。使用 SDM，我们评估了当前和未来三种社会经济路径（SSP）下黑吼猴潜在分布的预测，这些预测涵盖了 2030 年、2050 年、2070 年和 2090 年。具体来说，我们发现降水季节性（BIO15，30.8%）、等温性（BIO3，25.4%）和平均日较差（BIO2，19.7%）是影响 A. pigra 分布的主要因素。未来气候变化模型表明，根据预测情景，A. pigra 的潜在分布将会减少（从-1.23 到-12.66%）。高度适宜的地区是所有地区中受影响最大的，尤其是在最悲观的情景下，这可能与栖息地破碎化有关。我们的研究为黑吼猴的潜在未来分布和适宜栖息地提供了新的见解。这些信息可以为当地社区、政府和非政府组织提供这种灵长类动物的保护规划。
