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中国江苏荷斯坦奶牛场奶牛数字性皮炎的场内流行率首报:贝叶斯建模方法。

First report of the within-farm prevalence of bovine digital dermatitis in Chinese Holstein dairy cows in Jiangsu, China: A Bayesian modelling approach.

机构信息

College of Veterinary Medicine, Nanjing Agricultural University, Nanjing 210095, China.

School of Veterinary Science, Massey University, Palmerston North 4442, New Zealand.

出版信息

Res Vet Sci. 2024 Jun;172:105238. doi: 10.1016/j.rvsc.2024.105238. Epub 2024 Mar 26.

Abstract

Digital dermatitis is one of the most important causes of lameness in dairy cattle, particularly in housed, intensively-managed cattle. The number of modern intensive dairy farms in China has increased markedly in recent years; however, we lack research on digital dermatitis in Chinese dairy cattle. This preliminary study aimed to estimate the prevalence of digital dermatitis on three conveniently selected farms in Jiangsu, China. The washed hind feet of all lactating cows on all three farms were examined during milking with the aid of a mobile phone light source. True prevalence was then estimated from the apparent prevalence using a Bayesian superpopulation approach to account for the imperfect nature of identifying digital dermatitis in cows during milking. Despite none of the farms having thought it necessary to implement routine digital dermatitis monitoring or control, the disease was found on all three sampled farms. All lesions observed were either chronic M4 or M4.1 type-lesions, with no M2 lesions (i.e. acute ulcerated lesions) observed. The estimated true prevalences on the farms were 7.3% (95% credible interval [CrI]: 5.4%-9.6%), 8.3% (95%CrI: 6.3%-10.8%), and 29.8% (95%CrI: 22.9%-37.2%).

摘要

数字性皮炎是奶牛跛行的最重要原因之一,尤其是在圈养、集约化管理的牛群中。近年来,中国现代化的集约化奶牛场数量显著增加;然而,我们缺乏对中国奶牛数字性皮炎的研究。本初步研究旨在估计江苏省三个随机选择的奶牛场的数字性皮炎流行率。在挤奶过程中,利用手机光源检查所有泌乳奶牛的清洁后脚。然后使用贝叶斯超总体方法从明显流行率估计真实流行率,以解释在挤奶过程中识别奶牛数字性皮炎的不完美性。尽管没有一个农场认为有必要实施常规的数字性皮炎监测或控制,但在所有三个抽样农场都发现了这种疾病。所有观察到的病变均为慢性 M4 或 M4.1 型病变,未观察到 M2 病变(即急性溃疡性病变)。农场的估计真实流行率分别为 7.3%(95%可信区间[CrI]:5.4%-9.6%)、8.3%(95%CrI:6.3%-10.8%)和 29.8%(95%CrI:22.9%-37.2%)。

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