Department of Natural Resources, Faculty of African Postgraduate Studies, Cairo University, Egypt E-mail:
Department of Natural Resources, Faculty of African Postgraduate Studies, Cairo University, Egypt.
Water Sci Technol. 2024 Mar;89(6):1419-1440. doi: 10.2166/wst.2024.070. Epub 2024 Mar 5.
Rivers respond directly to climate change, as well as incorporating the effects of climate-driven changes occurring within their watersheds. In this research, climate change's impact on the Atbara River, one of the main tributaries of the Nile River, was studied. Various statistical methods of analysis were applied to study the basic characteristics of the climatic parameters that affect the discharge of the Atbara River. The three hydrological gauging stations on the Atbara River, namely, the Upper Atbara and Setit reservoirs, Khashm el-Girba reservoir, and Atbara Kilo 3 station, were included in the study. The correlation between the meteorological parameters and the hydrology of the Atbara River and the prediction of the future hydrology of the Atbara River Basin was determined. Many hydrological models were developed and tested to predict the hydrology of the river. Finally, forecasting for river hydrology was built. No significant trend was found in the precipitation in the study area. The developed model simulates the observed data with a high coefficient of determination ranging from 0.7 to 0.91 for the three hydrological gauging stations studied. Results predicted a slight decrease in river discharge in future years.
河流直接受到气候变化的影响，同时也受到流域内气候驱动变化的影响。本研究旨在探讨气候变化对尼罗河主要支流之一——阿特巴拉河的影响。采用了各种统计分析方法来研究影响阿特巴拉河流量的气候参数的基本特征。研究包括阿特巴拉河上的三个水文站，即上阿特巴拉和塞提特水库、卡什姆埃尔-吉尔巴水库和阿特巴拉基洛 3 号站。确定了气象参数与阿特巴拉河的水文学之间的关系，以及对阿特巴拉河流域未来水文学的预测。开发并测试了许多水文模型来预测河流的水文学。最后，建立了对河流水文的预测。研究区域内的降水没有明显的趋势。所开发的模型对三个水文站的观测数据进行了模拟，其决定系数范围从 0.7 到 0.91。结果预测未来几年河流流量将略有下降。
