INRAE, AgroClim, 84914, Avignon, France.
ARVALIS - Institut du Végétal, Villiers-le-Bâcle, France.
Sci Rep. 2024 Apr 8;14(1):8184. doi: 10.1038/s41598-024-58826-w.
Climate change threatens food security by affecting the productivity of major cereal crops. To date, agroclimatic risk projections through indicators have focused on expected hazards exposure during the crop's current vulnerable seasons, without considering the non-stationarity of their phenology under evolving climatic conditions. We propose a new method for spatially classifying agroclimatic risks for wheat, combining high-resolution climatic data with a wheat's phenological model. The method is implemented for French wheat involving three GCM-RCM model pairs and two emission scenarios. We found that the precocity of phenological stages allows wheat to avoid periods of water deficit in the near future. Nevertheless, in the coming decades the emergence of heat stress and increasing water deficit will deteriorate wheat cultivation over the French territory. Projections show the appearance of combined risks of heat and water deficit up to 4 years per decade under the RCP 8.5 scenario. The proposed method provides a deep level of information that enables regional adaptation strategies: the nature of the risk, its temporal and spatial occurrence, and its potential combination with other risks. It's a first step towards identifying potential sites for breeding crop varieties to increase the resilience of agricultural systems.
气候变化通过影响主要谷物作物的生产力来威胁粮食安全。迄今为止，通过指标进行的农业气候风险预测主要集中在作物当前脆弱季节期间预计的危害暴露，而没有考虑到在不断变化的气候条件下其物候的非平稳性。我们提出了一种新的方法，用于结合高分辨率气候数据和小麦物候模型，对小麦的农业气候风险进行空间分类。该方法针对法国小麦实施，涉及三个 GCM-RCM 模型对和两种排放情景。我们发现，物候阶段的早熟使小麦能够在不久的将来避免缺水期。然而，在未来几十年，热应激和日益增加的水分亏缺将恶化法国境内的小麦种植。预测显示，在 RCP8.5 情景下，每十年出现热和水分亏缺综合风险的情况多达 4 年。该方法提供了深层次的信息，使区域适应策略成为可能：风险的性质、其时空发生情况以及与其他风险的潜在组合。这是确定潜在的作物品种培育地点以提高农业系统弹性的第一步。
