Department of Clinical Sciences and Community Health, University of Milan, Milan, Italy.
Department of Epidemiology and Health Services Research, Centre for Primary Care and Public Health (Unisanté), University of Lausanne, Lausanne, Switzerland.
Eur J Cancer Prev. 2024 Nov 1;33(6):493-504. doi: 10.1097/CEJ.0000000000000889. Epub 2024 Apr 9.
We estimated cancer mortality figures in five major Asian countries and Australia for 2024, focusing on stomach cancer, a leading cause of cancer-related deaths in Eastern Asia.
We computed country- and sex-specific annual age-standardized rates (ASRs) for total cancers and the 10 most common cancer sites, using WHO and the United Nations Population Division databases from 1970 to 2021 or the latest available year. We predicted figures for 2024 and estimated the number of avoided cancer deaths in 1994-2024.
All cancers combined ASR declined between 2015-2019 and 2024 across considered countries and sexes. In 2024, the lowest predicted male rate is in the Philippines (75.0/100 000) and the highest in Australia (94.2/100 000). The Republic of Korea is predicted to have the lowest female ASR (42.1/100 000) while the Philippines the highest (74.5/100 000). Over the last three decades, 121 300 deaths were estimated to be avoided in Hong Kong SAR, 69 500 in Israel, 1 246 300 in Japan, 653 300 in the Republic of Korea, 303 300 in Australia, and 89 700 among Philippine men. Mortality from stomach cancer has been decreasing since 1970 in all considered countries and both sexes. Significant decreases are at all age groups Male rates remain, however, high in Japan (8.7/100 000) and the Republic of Korea (6.2/100 000).
Declining cancer mortality is predicted in the considered countries, notably reducing stomach cancer burden. Stomach cancer, however, remains a major public health issue in East Asia.
我们预计了 2024 年五个亚洲主要国家和澳大利亚的癌症死亡率，重点关注胃癌，这是东亚地区癌症死亡的主要原因。
我们使用世界卫生组织和联合国人口司数据库中 1970 年至 2021 年或最新可用年份的数据，计算了每个国家和性别的总癌症和 10 个最常见癌症部位的年度年龄标准化率（ASR）。我们预测了 2024 年的数字，并估计了 1994-2024 年避免的癌症死亡人数。
在所考虑的国家和性别中，2015-2019 年和 2024 年所有癌症的综合 ASR 均有所下降。2024 年，预计男性发病率最低的是菲律宾（75.0/100000），最高的是澳大利亚（94.2/100000）。预计女性 ASR 最低的是大韩民国（42.1/100000），而菲律宾最高（74.5/100000）。在过去的三十年中，预计中国香港特别行政区可避免 121300 人死亡，以色列 69500 人，日本 1246300 人，大韩民国 653300 人，澳大利亚 303300 人，菲律宾男性 89700 人。自 1970 年以来，所有考虑国家和两性的胃癌死亡率都在下降。所有年龄组的死亡率都有所下降，但日本（8.7/100000）和大韩民国（6.2/100000）的男性发病率仍然很高。
预计所考虑国家的癌症死亡率将下降，这将显著降低胃癌负担。然而，胃癌仍然是东亚地区的一个主要公共卫生问题。
