Department of Clinical Sciences and Community Health.
Department of Biomedical and Clinical Sciences, Università degli Studi di Milano, Milan, Italy.
Eur J Cancer Prev. 2021 Jan;30(1):1-14. doi: 10.1097/CEJ.0000000000000639.
Predicted cancer mortality figures are useful for public health planning. We predicted cancer mortality rates in Israel, Hong Kong, Japan, the Philippines, Korea, Australia, Russia and Ukraine for the year 2020 using the most recent available data. We focused on breast cancer.
We obtained cancer death certification and population data from the WHO and the United Nations Population Division databases. We derived figures for 10 major cancer sites and total cancers over 1970-2017. We predicted numbers of deaths and age-standardized mortality rates for 2020 through joinpoint regression models. We calculated the number of avoided deaths from 1994-2020.
Overall, total cancer mortality is predicted to decline. Russia had the highest all cancers rates in 2020, 151.9/100 000 men and 79.6 women; the Philippines had the lowest rate in men, 78.0/100 000, Korea in women, 47.5. Stomach cancer rates declined over the whole period in all countries considered, colorectal cancer since the late 1990s. Trends for pancreas were inconsistent. Predicted rates for lung and breast cancer were favourable; women from Hong Kong, Korea and Australia had lung cancer death rates higher than breast ones. Predicted rates for uterine, ovarian, prostate and bladder cancers and leukaemias were downward for most countries. Between 1994 and 2020, over 3.3 million cancer deaths were avoided in the considered countries, except for the Philippines where no reduction was observed.
Predicted cancer rates were lower than in the European Union and the USA, even though falls started later and were less marked.
预测癌症死亡率对于公共卫生规划很有用。我们使用最新的可用数据，预测了 2020 年以色列、中国香港、日本、菲律宾、韩国、澳大利亚、俄罗斯和乌克兰的癌症死亡率。我们专注于乳腺癌。
我们从世界卫生组织（WHO）和联合国人口司数据库中获得癌症死亡证明和人口数据。我们从 1970 年至 2017 年期间获得了 10 个主要癌症部位和所有癌症的数据。我们通过连接点回归模型预测 2020 年的死亡人数和年龄标准化死亡率。我们计算了 1994 年至 2020 年期间避免的死亡人数。
总体而言，预计所有癌症的死亡率将下降。2020 年，俄罗斯的所有癌症发病率最高，男性为 151.9/100000，女性为 79.6；菲律宾的男性发病率最低，为 78.0/100000，韩国的女性发病率最低，为 47.5。考虑到所有国家，胃癌的发病率在整个期间都有所下降，结直肠癌自 20 世纪 90 年代末以来也有所下降。胰腺癌的趋势不一致。预测的肺癌和乳腺癌发病率较为有利；中国香港、韩国和澳大利亚的女性肺癌死亡率高于乳腺癌。大多数国家的子宫癌、卵巢癌、前列腺癌和膀胱癌以及白血病的预测发病率呈下降趋势。除菲律宾外，在考虑到的国家中，1994 年至 2020 年期间避免了超过 330 万人的癌症死亡。
尽管下降开始较晚且幅度较小，但预测的癌症发病率低于欧盟和美国。
