The burden of migraine and predictions in the Asia-Pacific region, 1990-2021: a comparative analysis of China, South Korea, Japan, and Australia.

BACKGROUND

Migraine is a leading cause of disability worldwide, significantly impacting quality of life and healthcare systems. Despite its high prevalence and burden, migraine remains underprioritized in global health policies. This study examines the epidemiological trends of migraine in Australia, China, Japan, and South Korea from 1990 to 2021, highlighting regional disparities and forecasting future burdens.

METHODS

This study utilized data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 to analyze incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) of migraine. Age-standardized rates (ASRs) were calculated to enable fair cross-country comparisons. Joinpoint regression analysis was applied to assess temporal trends, while Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) modeling was used to project future trends until 2050. Additionally, decomposition analysis was conducted to differentiate the effects of population aging, growth, and epidemiological changes.

RESULTS

In 2021, China had the highest migraine burden, with 13.05 million new cases and 184.75 million prevalent cases, followed by Australia, Japan, and South Korea. Incidence rates peaked in adolescence (10-14 years), while prevalence and disability were highest in middle-aged women (40-44 years). From 1990 to 2021, Australia exhibited stable trends, China experienced increasing burden, Japan saw a decline due to aging, and Korea exhibited mixed patterns influenced by opposing demographic and epidemiological forces. Future projections suggest a stable trend in Australia, declining incidence in China and Japan, and continued burden in Korea.

CONCLUSION

Migraine remains a significant public health challenge across all four countries, with age, gender, and demographic changes playing key roles in burden variations. The study highlights the need for region-specific healthcare strategies and age- and gender-sensitive interventions. Future research should explore socioeconomic, behavioral, and healthcare access factors to refine migraine management strategies.