Department of Biology, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, NC, 27599, USA.
Biodiversity Institute, University of Kansas, Lawrence, KS, 66045, USA.
Biol Rev Camb Philos Soc. 2024 Aug;99(4):1481-1503. doi: 10.1111/brv.13077. Epub 2024 Apr 10.
Species are distributed in predictable ways in geographic spaces. The three principal factors that determine geographic distributions of species are biotic interactions (B), abiotic conditions (A), and dispersal ability or mobility (M). A species is expected to be present in areas that are accessible to it and that contain suitable sets of abiotic and biotic conditions for it to persist. A species' probability of presence can be quantified as a combination of responses to B, A, and M via ecological niche modeling (ENM; also frequently referred to as species distribution modeling or SDM). This analytical approach has been used broadly in ecology and biogeography, as well as in conservation planning and decision-making, but commonly in the context of 'natural' settings. However, it is increasingly recognized that human impacts, including changes in climate, land cover, and ecosystem function, greatly influence species' geographic ranges. In this light, historical distinctions between natural and anthropogenic factors have become blurred, and a coupled human-natural landscape is recognized as the new norm. Therefore, B, A, and M (BAM) factors need to be reconsidered to understand and quantify species' distributions in a world with a pervasive signature of human impacts. Here, we present a framework, termed human-influenced BAM (Hi-BAM, for distributional ecology that (i) conceptualizes human impacts in the form of six drivers, and (ii) synthesizes previous studies to show how each driver modifies the natural BAM and species' distributions. Given the importance and prevalence of human impacts on species distributions globally, we also discuss implications of this framework for ENM/SDM methods, and explore strategies by which to incorporate increasing human impacts in the methodology. Human impacts are redefining biogeographic patterns; as such, future studies should incorporate signals of human impacts integrally in modeling and forecasting species' distributions.
物种在地理空间中以可预测的方式分布。决定物种地理分布的三个主要因素是生物相互作用（B）、非生物条件（A）和扩散能力或迁移能力（M）。一个物种应该存在于它能够到达的区域，并且这些区域包含适合它生存的生物和非生物条件。物种存在的可能性可以通过生态位建模（ENM；也常称为物种分布建模或 SDM）来量化，它是对 B、A 和 M 的响应的组合。这种分析方法在生态学和生物地理学以及保护规划和决策中得到了广泛应用，但通常是在“自然”环境的背景下。然而，人们越来越认识到，人类的影响，包括气候变化、土地覆盖和生态系统功能的变化，极大地影响了物种的地理范围。从这个角度来看，自然和人为因素之间的历史区别已经变得模糊，一个耦合的人类-自然景观被认为是新的常态。因此，需要重新考虑 B、A 和 M（BAM）因素，以了解和量化在人类影响无处不在的世界中物种的分布。在这里，我们提出了一个框架，称为受人类影响的 BAM（Hi-BAM，用于分布生态学），该框架（i）以六种驱动因素的形式来概念化人类影响，（ii）综合以前的研究，展示每个驱动因素如何改变自然 BAM 和物种的分布。鉴于人类对物种分布的影响在全球范围内的重要性和普遍性，我们还讨论了该框架对 ENM/SDM 方法的影响，并探讨了在方法中纳入不断增加的人类影响的策略。人类影响正在重新定义生物地理模式；因此，未来的研究应该在建模和预测物种分布时，将人类影响的信号整体纳入。
