Li Ming, Sun Yu, Yang Yongsheng, Zhang Xiujuan
Key Laboratory of Adaptation and Evolution of Plateau Biota Northwest Institute of Plateau Biology, Chinese Academy of Sciences Xining China.
College of Horticulture and Gardening Yangtze University Jingzhou China.
Ecol Evol. 2025 Apr 10;15(4):e71269. doi: 10.1002/ece3.71269. eCollection 2025 Apr.
Extensive evidence supports that global climate change influences shifts in species habitats due to alterations in hydrothermal conditions; however, neglecting dispersal capacities and limits significantly heightens uncertainties regarding spatial distribution patterns among different organisms. In this study, we compared the spatial distribution of Hu & W.C. Cheng () in the current Anthropocene context to that in a climate-only context, providing new insights into the effects of climate change, dispersal potential, and dispersal barriers on the habitat changes for . By utilizing optimized MaxEnt and MigClim models, we predicted Mid-Holocene (MH) conditions and potential colonizable habitats under three emission scenarios (SSP126, SSP245, and SSP585) for both the medium and long term. We also assessed habitat distribution and variation differences in future warm-wet conditions and the Anthropocene context. The results revealed that (1) The Precipitation of driest month (BIO14), Mean diurnal range (Bio2) and human footprint (HFP) are the primary factors influencing the expansion or contraction of the habitats of . Human footprint, farmland, roads, and construction land are the main contributors to habitat loss and fragmentation. (2) Habitats of are expected to experience significant loss in the future. There is potential for recovery in South China under the SSP126 emission scenario, but human activities may hinder this recovery. Moderate human intervention is necessary in regions, such as Hubei, Hunan, Anhui, and Sichuan basins. (3) Due to human influence, the habitat and high-suitability areas for are projected to migrate northeastward. Under the SSP126 scenario, a trend of reverse migration may be observed in the long term. This study minimizes the uncertainty in predicting species distribution under climate change while providing theoretical support for future habitat conservation of .
大量证据表明，全球气候变化因热液条件的改变而影响物种栖息地的转移；然而，忽视扩散能力和限制会显著增加不同生物之间空间分布模式的不确定性。在本研究中，我们将当前人类世背景下胡[具体物种名]和程[具体物种名]的空间分布与仅考虑气候因素的背景下的分布进行了比较，从而为气候变化、扩散潜力和扩散障碍对[具体物种名]栖息地变化的影响提供了新的见解。通过使用优化的MaxEnt和MigClim模型，我们预测了中全新世（MH）条件以及在三种排放情景（SSP126、SSP245和SSP585）下中长期的潜在可殖民栖息地。我们还评估了未来暖湿条件和人类世背景下的栖息地分布及变化差异。结果表明：（1）最干月降水量（BIO14）、平均日较差（Bio2）和人类足迹（HFP）是影响[具体物种名]栖息地扩张或收缩的主要因素。人类足迹、农田、道路和建设用地是栖息地丧失和破碎化的主要原因。（2）预计[具体物种名]的栖息地在未来将大幅丧失。在SSP126排放情景下，中国南方有恢复的潜力，但人类活动可能会阻碍这种恢复。在湖北、湖南、安徽和四川盆地等地区，适度的人类干预是必要的。（3）由于人类影响，[具体物种名]的栖息地和高适宜区预计将向东北方向迁移。在SSP126情景下，从长期来看可能会观察到反向迁移的趋势。本研究最大限度地减少了气候变化下预测物种分布的不确定性，同时为[具体物种名]未来的栖息地保护提供了理论支持。
