Dennison James, Kustov Alexander, Geddes Andrew
European University Institute, Fiesole, Italy.
Yale University, New Haven, CT, USA.
Int Migr Rev. 2023 Jun;57(2):557-577. doi: 10.1177/01979183221134272. Epub 2022 Dec 27.
How has the COVID-19 pandemic affected public attitudes toward immigration? Long-term evidence in Europe and the United States suggests attitudes to immigration are relatively stable and, in some cases, becoming more favorable with high volatility instead of the perceived importance of the issue. However, theoretically a global pandemic could exacerbate people's fears of outsiders or that migration may contribute to the disease. By contrast, attitudes could remain stable if their distal drivers prove to be robust enough to withstand the shock of COVID-19. We draw from Eurobarometer data from 2014 to 2021 across 28 European countries, weekly national survey data during the outbreak from the United States and individual panel data from the United Kingdom and Germany to find little change in immigration preferences and no country-level correlation between the observed changes and the outbreak's severity. Instead, the perceived importance of immigration has consistently and significantly decreased. These findings suggest that, if COVID-19 is to have an impact on attitudes to migration, it is likely to emerge via longer-term means, such as early-life socialization and value change, rather than reactions to the immediate pandemic shock.
新冠疫情如何影响公众对移民的态度？欧美地区的长期证据表明，人们对移民的态度相对稳定，在某些情况下，态度变得更加积极，但波动较大，而非如人们认为的那样受该问题重要性的影响。然而，从理论上讲，一场全球大流行可能会加剧人们对外来者的恐惧，或者认为移民可能会传播疾病。相比之下，如果移民态度的深层驱动因素足够强大，能够抵御新冠疫情的冲击，那么人们的态度可能会保持稳定。我们利用了2014年至2021年来自28个欧洲国家的欧洲晴雨表数据、美国疫情期间的每周全国调查数据以及英国和德国的个人面板数据，发现移民偏好几乎没有变化，且观察到的变化与疫情严重程度之间不存在国家层面的相关性。相反，人们对移民问题重要性的认知持续且显著下降。这些发现表明，如果新冠疫情要对移民态度产生影响，很可能是通过诸如早期社会化和价值观变化等长期方式，而非对疫情直接冲击的反应。
