Khan Md Mamun-Ur-Rashid, Tanimoto Jun
Interdisciplinary Graduate School of Engineering Sciences, Kyushu University, Kasuga-koen, Kasuga-shi, Fukuoka, 816-8580, Japan.
Department of Mathematics, University of Dhaka, Dhaka, 1000, Bangladesh.
Infect Dis Model. 2024 Mar 24;9(3):657-672. doi: 10.1016/j.idm.2024.03.004. eCollection 2024 Sep.
In this research, we introduce a comprehensive epidemiological model that accounts for multiple strains of an infectious disease and two distinct vaccination options. Vaccination stands out as the most effective means to prevent and manage infectious diseases. However, when there are various vaccines available, each with its costs and effectiveness, the decision-making process for individuals becomes paramount. Furthermore, the factor of waning immunity following vaccination also plays a significant role in influencing these choices. To understand how individuals make decisions in the context of multiple strains and waning immunity, we employ a behavioral model, allowing an epidemiological model to be coupled with the dynamics of a decision-making process. Individuals base their choice of vaccination on factors such as the total number of infected individuals and the cost-effectiveness of the vaccine. Our findings indicate that as waning immunity increases, people tend to prioritize vaccines with higher costs and greater efficacy. Moreover, when more contagious strains are present, the equilibrium in vaccine adoption is reached more rapidly. Finally, we delve into the social dilemma inherent in our model by quantifying the social efficiency deficit (SED) under various parameter combinations.
在本研究中，我们引入了一个综合流行病学模型，该模型考虑了传染病的多种毒株以及两种不同的疫苗接种选择。疫苗接种是预防和控制传染病最有效的手段。然而，当有多种疫苗可供选择，且每种疫苗都有其成本和效果时，个人的决策过程就变得至关重要。此外，接种疫苗后免疫力下降的因素在影响这些选择方面也起着重要作用。为了理解个体在多种毒株和免疫力下降的背景下如何做出决策，我们采用了一种行为模型，使流行病学模型能够与决策过程的动态相结合。个体根据感染个体总数和疫苗的成本效益等因素来选择接种疫苗。我们的研究结果表明，随着免疫力下降的增加，人们倾向于优先选择成本更高、效果更好的疫苗。此外，当存在更具传染性的毒株时，疫苗接种的平衡会更快达到。最后，我们通过量化各种参数组合下的社会效率赤字（SED），深入探讨了我们模型中固有的社会困境。
