Tori Risa, Tanimoto Jun
Interdisciplinary Graduate School of Engineering Sciences, Kyushu University, Kasuga-koen, Kasuga-shi, Fukuoka 816-8580, Japan.
Faculty of Engineering Sciences, Kyushu University, Kasuga-koen, Kasuga-shi, Fukuoka 816-8580, Japan.
Chaos Solitons Fractals. 2022 May;158:112030. doi: 10.1016/j.chaos.2022.112030. Epub 2022 Mar 31.
In the wake of COVID-19, mask-wearing practice and self-quarantine is thought to be the most effective means of controlling disease spread. The current study develops an epidemiological model based on the SEIR process that takes into account dynamic human behavior toward those two preventive measures. In terms of quantifying the effect of wearing a mask, our model distinguishes itself by accounting for the effect of self-protection as well as the effect of reducing a potential risk to other individuals in different formulations. Each of the two measures derived from the so-called behavior model has a dynamical equation that takes into account the delicate balance between the cost of wearing a mask/self-quarantine and the risk of infection. The dynamical system as a whole contains a social dilemma structure because of whether to commit to preventing measures or seek the possibility of infection-free without paying anything. The numerical result was delivered along the social efficiency deficit, quantifying the extent to which Nash equilibrium has been improved to a social optimal state. Theory and modeling; computer simulation, 87.15.Aa; Dynamics of evolution, 87.23.Kg.
在新冠疫情之后，戴口罩和自我隔离被认为是控制疾病传播的最有效手段。当前的研究基于SEIR过程开发了一种流行病学模型，该模型考虑了人们对这两种预防措施的动态行为。在量化戴口罩的效果方面，我们的模型通过在不同公式中考虑自我保护的效果以及降低对其他个体潜在风险的效果而独具特色。从所谓行为模型得出的这两种措施中的每一种都有一个动态方程，该方程考虑了戴口罩/自我隔离的成本与感染风险之间的微妙平衡。由于是否采取预防措施或寻求不付出任何代价即可无感染可能性的问题，整个动态系统包含一种社会困境结构。数值结果是沿着社会效率赤字给出的，量化了纳什均衡已改善到社会最优状态的程度。理论与建模；计算机模拟，87.15.Aa；进化动力学，87.23.Kg。
