Nketiah Prince, Ntuli Herbert
Department of Agricultural Economics, Extension and Rural Development, Faculty of Agriculture, University of Pretoria, Pretoria, South Africa.
Jamba. 2024 Mar 30;16(1):1557. doi: 10.4102/jamba.v16i1.1557. eCollection 2024.
Destocking as a drought mitigation strategy exposes smallholder cattle farmers to adverse effects, including the distortion of farm planning and income loss, as cattle are sold off regardless of the market price. Factors influencing destocking as a drought mitigation strategy for smallholder cattle farmers have received less attention in the literature. The study assessed the relationship between drought and cattle destocking as well as factors that affect farmers' destocking decision. The relationship between drought and cattle destocking was assessed using correlation analysis, while determinants of destocking were identified through the zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP) regression model, which controlled for structural zeros. The research covered the period 2008-2017 using secondary data from the National Income Dynamics Study (NIDS), the South Africa Weather Service and the Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO). The study found that drought has direct correlation with the quantity of beef produced in South Africa at -0.67, with a 1% significance level. Farmers' socioeconomic characteristics such as cattle herd size, income, secondary occupation, fodder purchase and ownership of land positively influenced cattle destocking decision while household size and cattle loss during drought influenced destocking decision negatively.
The study estimated the determinants of smallholder cattle farmers' decision to destock during drought, using a count model and accounted for socioeconomic and farmer-specific factors.
将牲畜减栏作为一种缓解干旱的策略会使小农户养牛户面临不利影响，包括农场规划被打乱和收入损失，因为无论市场价格如何，牛都被卖掉。在文献中，影响将牲畜减栏作为小农户养牛户缓解干旱策略的因素较少受到关注。该研究评估了干旱与牲畜减栏之间的关系以及影响农户减栏决策的因素。使用相关性分析评估干旱与牲畜减栏之间的关系，同时通过零膨胀泊松（ZIP）回归模型确定减栏的决定因素，该模型控制了结构性零值。该研究利用来自国民收入动态研究（NIDS）、南非气象局和联合国粮食及农业组织（FAO）的二手数据，涵盖了2008 - 2017年期间。研究发现，干旱与南非牛肉产量之间存在直接相关性，相关系数为 -0.67，显著性水平为1%。农户的社会经济特征，如牛群规模、收入、副业、饲料购买和土地所有权对牲畜减栏决策有积极影响，而家庭规模和干旱期间牛的损失对减栏决策有负面影响。
该研究使用计数模型估计了小农户养牛户在干旱期间决定减栏的决定因素，并考虑了社会经济和农户特定因素。
