Owusu-Sekyere Emmanuel, Lunga Wilfred, Karuaihe Selma T
Human Sciences Research Council, Pretoria, South Africa.
African Centre for Disaster Studies (ACDS), Potchefstroom, South Africa.
Jamba. 2021 Oct 29;13(1):1081. doi: 10.4102/jamba.v13i1.1081. eCollection 2021.
This research study explores the impact of disasters on economic growth in selected Southern Africa Development Community countries. Annual data from 2005 to 2019 and panel data econometric estimation techniques are used in this study. The estimation approaches used control for both pooled and individual effects, heteroscedasticity, serial correlation, moderate levels of endogeneity and cross-sectional dependence (CSD). We found that although the impact of disasters on economic growth may be negative contemporaneously, reconstruction and recovery activities if well-resourced could facilitate building back better, which could ultimately lead to positive outcomes on economic growth a year after the disaster. We further tested the hypothesis in existing literature and confirm that quality institutions, favourable financial conditions and adequate access to international markets enhance a country's coping and adaptive capabilities to disasters, thereby reducing the country's level of risk to disasters.
本研究探讨了灾害对南部非洲发展共同体选定国家经济增长的影响。本研究使用了2005年至2019年的年度数据和面板数据计量经济学估计技术。所采用的估计方法控制了混合效应和个体效应、异方差性、序列相关性、适度的内生性水平和截面依赖性（CSD）。我们发现，尽管灾害对经济增长的影响可能在同一时期是负面的，但如果资源充足，重建和恢复活动可以促进更好地重建，这最终可能导致灾害发生一年后经济增长出现积极结果。我们进一步检验了现有文献中的假设，并证实优质的制度、有利的金融条件和充足的国际市场准入能够增强一个国家应对和适应灾害的能力，从而降低该国面临灾害的风险水平。
