Zou Ning, Wang Chang, Wang Siyuan, Li Yunyuan
School of Landscape Architecture, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing, 100083, China.
Beijing Laboratory of Urban and Rural Ecology and Environment, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing, 100083, China.
Heliyon. 2023 Jul 30;9(8):e18814. doi: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2023.e18814. eCollection 2023 Aug.
Urban expansion, especially the construction of megacities, increases carbon emissions and adversely affects the carbon storage of terrestrial ecosystems. However, scientific land-use management policies can increase carbon storage. This study takes two megacities at different stages of development, Beijing and Tianjin, as examples to explore the impact of different ecological conservation scenarios on both urban land use and carbon storage to provide recommendations for the construction planning of large cities with low-carbon development as the goal. Furthermore, we coupled the patch-generating land use simulation (PLUS) model with the integrated valuation of ecosystem services and tradeoffs (InVEST) model to simulate land use and carbon storage under a natural development scenario, a planned ecological protection scenario (PEPS), and a policy-based ecological restoration scenario (PERS). From 2000 to 2020, both cities had different degrees of construction land expansion and carbon loss, and Tianjin's dynamic degree of construction land was 0.94% higher than Beijing's, with a carbon loss 183,536.19 Mg higher than Beijing's; this trend of reducing carbon reserves will continue under the natural development scenario (NDS). Under the PEPS and PERS, the carbon stock of both cities increases, and the impact on Tianjin is greater, with an increase of 4.51% and 8.04%, respectively. Under PERS, the carbon stock increases the most, but the dynamic degree of construction land use is negative for both cities. Beijing's carbon stock is 0.40% lower than Tianjin's, which deviates slightly from the trend of urban economic development. Megacities in the rapid development stage can refer to Tianjin, strictly following the ecological protection land planning scope and vigorously implementing ecological restoration policies to effectively increase regional carbon stock. Megacities in the mature stage of development can refer to Beijing, and flexibly implement ecological restoration policies to increase regional carbon stock without affecting the city's economic development.
城市扩张，尤其是特大城市的建设，会增加碳排放并对陆地生态系统的碳储存产生不利影响。然而，科学的土地利用管理政策可以增加碳储存。本研究以处于不同发展阶段的两个特大城市北京和天津为例，探讨不同生态保护情景对城市土地利用和碳储存的影响，为以低碳发展为目标的大城市建设规划提供建议。此外，我们将斑块生成土地利用模拟（PLUS）模型与生态系统服务和权衡综合评估（InVEST）模型相结合，以模拟自然发展情景、规划生态保护情景（PEPS）和基于政策的生态恢复情景（PERS）下的土地利用和碳储存。2000年至2020年，两个城市都有不同程度的建设用地扩张和碳损失，天津建设用地的动态变化程度比北京高0.94%，碳损失比北京高183536.19吨；在自然发展情景（NDS）下，这种碳储量减少的趋势将继续。在PEPS和PERS情景下，两个城市的碳储量均增加，且对天津的影响更大，分别增加了4.51%和8.04%。在PERS情景下，碳储量增加最多，但两个城市的建设用地动态变化程度均为负。北京的碳储量比天津低0.40%，这与城市经济发展趋势略有偏差。处于快速发展阶段的特大城市可以借鉴天津，严格遵循生态保护土地规划范围，大力实施生态恢复政策，有效增加区域碳储量。处于发展成熟阶段的特大城市可以借鉴北京，灵活实施生态恢复政策，在不影响城市经济发展的前提下增加区域碳储量。
