Department of Neurosurgery, The Fifth Clinical Medical College of Shanxi Medical University, Taiyuan City, Shanxi Province, China.
Department of Pneumology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Hebei North University, Zhangjiakou City, Hebei Province, China.
PLoS One. 2024 Apr 17;19(4):e0300390. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0300390. eCollection 2024.
Central nervous system (CNS) tumors, due to their unique locations, pose a serious threat to human health and present challenges to modern medicine. These tumors exhibit notable epidemiological characteristics across various ethnicities, regions, and age groups. This study investigated the trend of disease burden of CNS tumors in China from 1990-2019 and predicted the incidence and death rate from 2020-2030. Employing data from the 2019 Global Burden of Disease (GBD) database, we utilized key indicators to scrutinize the disease burden associated with CNS tumors in China. The analysis employed the Joinpoint model to track the trend in disease burden, calculating both the annual percentage change (APC) and average annual percentage change (AAPC). Additionally, the Matlab software facilitated the creation of a gray model to forecast the incidence and death rate of CNS tumors in China spanning from 2020 to 2030." In 2019, the age-standardized incidence rate, prevalence rate, death rate, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) associated with CNS tumors in China were among the high level in the world. The standardized prevalence rate and DALYs of CNS tumors in China residents showed a stable fluctuation trend with age; however, age-standardized death and incidence rate demonstrated a generally upward trend with age. In China, the age-standardized prevalence and incidence rate of males were lower than those for female residents, while the age-standardized death rate and DALYs among males surpassed those of females. From 1990-2019, the age-standardized prevalence and incidence rate of CNS tumors in China exhibited an increasing trend. The age-standardized death rate and DALYs showed a contrasting trend. According to the gray model's prediction, incidence rate of CNS tumors would continue rising while the death rate is expected to decline in China from 2020-2023. The burden of CNS tumors in China has shown an upward trajectory, posing significant challenges to their treatment. It is necessary to pay attention to tertiary prevention, start from the perspective of high-risk groups and high-risk factors to reduce the burden of disease, and achieve "early detection, early diagnosis, and early treatment".
中枢神经系统（CNS）肿瘤因其独特的位置，对人类健康构成严重威胁，也给现代医学带来挑战。这些肿瘤在不同种族、地区和年龄组具有显著的流行病学特征。本研究旨在探讨 1990 年至 2019 年中国 CNS 肿瘤疾病负担的变化趋势，并预测 2020 年至 2030 年的发病率和死亡率。本研究采用 2019 年全球疾病负担（GBD）数据库中的数据，利用关键指标对中国 CNS 肿瘤疾病负担进行分析。采用 Joinpoint 模型追踪疾病负担变化趋势，计算年变化百分比（APC）和平均年变化百分比（AAPC）。同时，Matlab 软件用于建立灰色模型预测中国 CNS 肿瘤的发病率和死亡率。结果显示，2019 年中国 CNS 肿瘤的年龄标准化发病率、患病率、死亡率和伤残调整生命年（DALYs）均处于全球较高水平。中国居民 CNS 肿瘤的标准化患病率和 DALYs 随年龄呈稳定波动趋势，而年龄标准化死亡率和发病率则呈总体上升趋势。中国男性 CNS 肿瘤的年龄标准化患病率和发病率低于女性，而死亡率和 DALYs 则高于女性。1990 年至 2019 年，中国 CNS 肿瘤的年龄标准化患病率和发病率呈上升趋势，年龄标准化死亡率和 DALYs 呈相反趋势。灰色模型预测显示，2020 年至 2023 年，中国 CNS 肿瘤的发病率将继续上升，死亡率将下降。中国 CNS 肿瘤的疾病负担呈上升趋势，对其治疗构成重大挑战。有必要重视三级预防，从高危人群和高危因素的角度出发，降低疾病负担，实现“早发现、早诊断、早治疗”。
