Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters/Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Agricultural Meteorology, School of Applied Meteorology, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing, 210044, China.
Jiangsu Collaborative Innovation Center of Atmospheric Environment and Equipment Technology (CICAEET), Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing, 210044, China.
Environ Monit Assess. 2019 Apr 11;191(5):276. doi: 10.1007/s10661-019-7406-3.
To address the increasing hazards of climate change to winter oilseed rape production in Jiangsu province, southeast China, a total of 12 agro-meteorological disaster indices (MDI) during 1961-2012 was applied to quantify the disaster impacts of spring precipitation extremes, autumn droughts, winter freezing injuries, and spring chilling injuries. The main findings were as follows: (1) due to the obvious north-south gradient of MDI, this province was classified as four climactic sub-regions: north, central-north, central-south, and south Jiangsu, respectively; (2) in central-north, central-south, and south Jiangsu, the maximum length of dry spell during autumn (DI3), the maximum duration of consecutive rainfalls during spring (PI3), and number of rainy days during spring (PI1) were selected as the leading MDI affecting oilseed rape yield, respectively; (3) each 1d of DI3, PI3, and PI1 increase would result in yield losses of 0.7%, 3.6%, and 1.7% in central-north, central-south, and south Jiangsu, respectively; (4) compared to the weak changes in spring rainfall and autumn drought, the significant weakening of winter-spring cold extremes across Jiangsu had more notable yield increasing effects, especially the strong decrease of freezing events during winter had increased yield by up to 1.4-3.0%.
为应对气候变化给中国东南部江苏省冬油菜生产带来的日益严重的威胁，该研究应用了 1961-2012 年期间的 12 个农业气象灾害指数（MDI）来量化春季降水极值、秋季干旱、冬季冻害和春季冷害对油菜生产的灾害影响。主要结果如下：（1）由于 MDI 具有明显的南北梯度，该省被分为四个气候亚区：北部、中北部、中南部和南部江苏；（2）在中北部、中南部和南部江苏，秋季最长连续无雨日（DI3）、春季最大连续降雨日数（PI3）和春季降雨日数（PI1）被选为影响油菜产量的主要 MDI；（3）在中北部、中南部和南部江苏，每增加 1d 的 DI3、PI3 和 PI1，油菜产量将分别损失 0.7%、3.6%和 1.7%；（4）与春季降雨和秋季干旱的微弱变化相比，江苏冬季-春季冷极端事件的显著减弱对油菜产量增加具有更显著的影响，尤其是冬季强冻害事件的减少，最高可使油菜产量增加 1.4-3.0%。
