Center for Healthy Aging, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, USA.
Department of Human Development and Family Studies, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, USA.
J Child Psychol Psychiatry. 2024 Nov;65(11):1419-1428. doi: 10.1111/jcpp.13990. Epub 2024 Apr 18.
When unaddressed, contamination in child maltreatment research, in which some proportion of children recruited for a nonmaltreated comparison group are exposed to maltreatment, downwardly biases the significance and magnitude of effect size estimates. This study extends previous contamination research by investigating how a dual-measurement strategy of detecting and controlling contamination impacts causal effect size estimates of child behavior problems.
This study included 634 children from the LONGSCAN study with 63 cases of confirmed child maltreatment after age 8 and 571 cases without confirmed child maltreatment. Confirmed child maltreatment and internalizing and externalizing behaviors were recorded every 2 years between ages 4 and 16. Contamination in the nonmaltreated comparison group was identified and controlled by either a prospective self-report assessment at ages 12, 14, and 16 or by a one-time retrospective self-report assessment at age 18. Synthetic control methods were used to establish causal effects and quantify the impact of contamination when it was not controlled, when it was controlled for by prospective self-reports, and when it was controlled for by retrospective self-reports.
Rates of contamination ranged from 62% to 67%. Without controlling for contamination, causal effect size estimates for internalizing behaviors were not statistically significant. Causal effects only became statistically significant after controlling contamination identified from either prospective or retrospective reports and effect sizes increased by between 17% and 54%. Controlling contamination had a smaller impact on effect size increases for externalizing behaviors but did produce a statistically significant overall effect, relative to the model ignoring contamination, when prospective methods were used.
The presence of contamination in a nonmaltreated comparison group can underestimate the magnitude and statistical significance of causal effect size estimates, especially when investigating internalizing behavior problems. Addressing contamination can facilitate the replication of results across studies.
在儿童虐待研究中，如果未解决污染问题，即招募的非受虐对照组中有些比例的儿童实际上受到了虐待，那么这会导致效应大小估计值的显著性和幅度向下偏倚。本研究通过调查检测和控制污染的双重测量策略如何影响儿童行为问题的因果效应大小估计值，扩展了先前的污染研究。
本研究纳入了 LONGSCAN 研究中的 634 名儿童，其中 63 例在 8 岁后确诊为儿童虐待，571 例无确诊儿童虐待。在 4 至 16 岁之间，每 2 年记录一次确诊的儿童虐待以及内化和外化行为。通过在 12、14 和 16 岁时进行前瞻性自我报告评估，或在 18 岁时进行一次性回顾性自我报告评估，识别和控制非受虐对照组中的污染。采用合成控制方法确定因果效应，并量化在未控制污染、通过前瞻性自我报告控制污染以及通过回顾性自我报告控制污染的情况下污染的影响。
污染率在 62%至 67%之间。如果不控制污染，内化行为的因果效应大小估计值没有统计学意义。仅在通过前瞻性或回顾性报告控制污染后，因果效应才具有统计学意义，并且效应大小增加了 17%至 54%。控制污染对外化行为的效应大小增加的影响较小，但与忽略污染的模型相比，当使用前瞻性方法时，会产生具有统计学意义的总体效应。
非受虐对照组中的污染存在会低估因果效应大小估计值的幅度和统计学显著性，尤其是在调查内化行为问题时。解决污染问题有助于促进研究间结果的复制。
