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巴西一个流行地区的登革热传播的空间分析揭示了当地登革热传播动态的高度空间结构。

Spatial analysis of dengue transmission in an endemic city in Brazil reveals high spatial structuring on local dengue transmission dynamics.

机构信息

Laboratório de Mosquitos Transmissores de Hematozoários, Instituto Oswaldo Cruz, Fiocruz, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.

Centro de Controle de Zoonoses, Secretaria Municipal de Saúde de Foz do Iguaçu, Foz do Iguaçu, Brazil.

出版信息

Sci Rep. 2024 Apr 18;14(1):8930. doi: 10.1038/s41598-024-59537-y.

Abstract

In the last decades, dengue has become one of the most widespread mosquito-borne arboviruses in the world, with an increasing incidence in tropical and temperate regions. The mosquito Aedes aegypti is the dengue primary vector and is more abundant in highly urbanized areas. Traditional vector control methods have showing limited efficacy in sustaining mosquito population at low levels to prevent dengue virus outbreaks. Considering disease transmission is not evenly distributed in the territory, one perspective to enhance vector control efficacy relies on identifying the areas that concentrate arbovirus transmission within an endemic city, i.e., the hotspots. Herein, we used a 13-month timescale during the SARS-Cov-2 pandemic and its forced reduction in human mobility and social isolation to investigate the spatiotemporal association between dengue transmission in children and entomological indexes based on adult Ae. aegypti trapping. Dengue cases and the indexes Trap Positive Index (TPI) and Adult Density Index (ADI) varied seasonally, as expected: more than 51% of cases were notified on the first 2 months of the study, and higher infestation was observed in warmer months. The Moran's Eigenvector Maps (MEM) and Generalized Linear Models (GLM) revealed a strong large-scale spatial structuring in the positive dengue cases, with an unexpected negative correlation between dengue transmission and ADI. Overall, the global model and the purely spatial model presented a better fit to data. Our results show high spatial structure and low correlation between entomological and epidemiological data in Foz do Iguaçu dengue transmission dynamics, suggesting the role of human mobility might be overestimated and that other factors not evaluated herein could be playing a significant role in governing dengue transmission.

摘要

在过去的几十年中,登革热已成为世界上分布最广泛的蚊媒病毒之一,在热带和温带地区的发病率不断上升。埃及伊蚊是登革热的主要传播媒介,在高度城市化地区更为丰富。传统的病媒控制方法在维持蚊虫种群数量低水平以防止登革热病毒爆发方面效果有限。考虑到疾病传播在领土上并不均匀分布,增强病媒控制效果的一个视角是确定流行城市内集中传播虫媒病毒的区域,即热点区域。在此,我们利用 SARS-CoV-2 大流行及其对人类流动性和社会隔离的强制减少的 13 个月时间尺度,研究了儿童登革热传播与基于成蚊诱捕的昆虫学指标之间的时空关联。登革热病例和虫媒指数(TPI)和成虫密度指数(ADI)随季节变化而变化,这是意料之中的:超过 51%的病例是在研究的头 2 个月报告的,在温暖的月份观察到更高的感染率。Moran's Eigenvector Maps(MEM)和广义线性模型(GLM)揭示了阳性登革热病例中存在强烈的大规模空间结构,登革热传播与 ADI 之间出人意料地呈负相关。总体而言,全局模型和纯空间模型对数据的拟合更好。我们的研究结果表明,福斯杜伊瓜苏登革热传播动态中的昆虫学和流行病学数据具有高度的空间结构和低相关性,这表明人类流动性的作用可能被高估了,而本文未评估的其他因素可能在控制登革热传播方面发挥了重要作用。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/252b/11026424/992383508f41/41598_2024_59537_Fig1_HTML.jpg

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