Duan Tingting, Qin Mengyao, Du Yue, Zhu Derong, Zhou Xuejun, Ding Shun, Wang Desheng
Department of Otolaryngology, Fujian Medical University Union Hospital, Fuzhou, China.
Department of Otolaryngology, Head and Neck Surgery, The First Affiliated Hospital, Hainan Medical University, Haikou, China.
Front Public Health. 2025 Aug 20;13:1624622. doi: 10.3389/fpubh.2025.1624622. eCollection 2025.
Explore the changes in the burden of nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) caused by occupational formaldehyde exposure from 1990 to 2021, and predict its development trend up to 2050, to provide references for formulating relevant policies and measures.
Using the Global Burden of Disease database 2021 (GBD 2021), we counted and analyzed the numbers and standardized rates of NPC deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) caused by occupational formaldehyde exposure globally, in 21 regions, and in 204 countries. Combined with correlation analysis, health inequality analysis, and frontier analysis, we further comprehensively described the disease burden and its changing trends. In addition, we used the Bayesian age-period-cohort model to predict the disease burden from 2022 to 2050.
From 1990 to 2021 and from 2022 to 2050, the global disease burden of NPC caused by occupational formaldehyde exposure shows a downward trend. In terms of gender, the disease burden is higher among men than among women. From the perspective of the socio-demographic index (SDI), the disease burden is most severe in regions with lower SDI. Geographically, there are significant differences in the disease burden among different countries and regions, with South Asia, East Asia, and Africa having the highest disease burden. In addition, in terms of age distribution, the disease burden is relatively higher among middle-aged people, especially those aged 45-49.
From 1990 to 2021, the disease burden of NPC caused by global occupational formaldehyde exposure showed a downward trend, and the regional burden decreased with the increase of SDI.
探究1990年至2021年职业性甲醛暴露所致鼻咽癌（NPC）负担的变化，并预测至2050年的发展趋势，为制定相关政策措施提供参考。
利用2021年全球疾病负担数据库（GBD 2021），统计分析全球、21个地区及204个国家职业性甲醛暴露所致NPC死亡人数、标准化死亡率及伤残调整生命年（DALYs）。结合相关性分析、健康不平等分析和前沿分析，进一步全面描述疾病负担及其变化趋势。此外，采用贝叶斯年龄-时期-队列模型预测2022年至2050年的疾病负担。
1990年至2021年以及2022年至2050年，职业性甲醛暴露所致全球NPC疾病负担呈下降趋势。在性别方面，男性疾病负担高于女性。从社会人口学指数（SDI）来看，SDI较低地区的疾病负担最为严重。在地理上，不同国家和地区的疾病负担存在显著差异，南亚、东亚和非洲的疾病负担最高。此外，在年龄分布方面，中年人尤其是45 - 49岁人群的疾病负担相对较高。
1990年至2021年，全球职业性甲醛暴露所致NPC疾病负担呈下降趋势，且地区负担随SDI的增加而降低。
