Li Yanning, Jenn Alan
Civil and Environmental Engineering, Institute of Transportation Studies, University of California, Davis, CA 95616.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2024 Apr 30;121(18):e2317599121. doi: 10.1073/pnas.2317599121. Epub 2024 Apr 22.
California, a pioneer in EV adoption, has enacted ambitious electric vehicle (EV) policies that will generate a large burden on the state's electric distribution system. We investigate the statewide impact of uncontrolled EV charging on the electric distribution networks at a large scale and high granularity, by employing an EV charging profile projection that combines travel demand model, EV adoption model, and real-world EV charging data. We find a substantial need for infrastructure upgrades in 50% of feeders by 2035, and 67% of feeders by 2045. The distribution system across California must upgrade its capacity by 25 GW by 2045, corresponding to a cost between $6 and $20 billion. While the additional infrastructure cost drives the electricity price up, it is offset by the downward pressure from the growth of total electricity consumption and leads to a reduction in electricity rate between $0.01 and $0.06/kWh by 2045. We also find that overloading conditions are highly diverse spatially, with feeders in residential areas requiring twice as much upgrade compared to commercial areas. Our study provides a framework for evaluating EVs' impact on the distribution grid and indicates the potential to reduce infrastructure upgrade costs by shifting home-charging demand. The imminent challenges confronting California serve as a microcosm of the forthcoming obstacles anticipated worldwide due to the prevailing global trend of EV adoption.
加利福尼亚州是电动汽车普及的先驱，已制定了雄心勃勃的电动汽车政策，这将给该州的配电系统带来巨大负担。我们通过采用结合出行需求模型、电动汽车采用模型和实际电动汽车充电数据的电动汽车充电曲线预测，大规模、高粒度地研究了不受控电动汽车充电对配电网的全州范围影响。我们发现，到2035年，50%的馈线以及到2045年，67%的馈线急需进行基础设施升级。到2045年，加利福尼亚州的配电系统必须将其容量提升25吉瓦，这将带来60亿至200亿美元的成本。虽然额外的基础设施成本会推高电价，但它会被总用电量增长带来的下行压力抵消，到2045年导致电价每千瓦时降低0.01至0.06美元。我们还发现，过载情况在空间上差异很大，居民区的馈线所需升级量是商业区的两倍。我们的研究提供了一个评估电动汽车对配电网影响的框架，并指出了通过转移家庭充电需求来降低基础设施升级成本的潜力。加利福尼亚州面临的紧迫挑战是全球电动汽车普及这一普遍趋势下，世界各地即将面临的障碍的一个缩影。
