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电动汽车充电站的电力消耗预测与收入预测

Power consumption prediction for electric vehicle charging stations and forecasting income.

作者信息

Akshay K C, Grace G Hannah, Gunasekaran Kanimozhi, Samikannu Ravi

机构信息

School of Advanced Sciences, Vellore Institute of Technology, Chennai, Tamil Nadu, India.

Center for Smart Grid Technologies, School of Electrical Engineering, Vellore Institute of Technology, Chennai, Tamil Nadu, India.

出版信息

Sci Rep. 2024 Mar 18;14(1):6497. doi: 10.1038/s41598-024-56507-2.

Abstract

Electric vehicles (EVs) are the future of the automobile industry, as they produce zero emissions and address environmental and health concerns caused by traditional fuel-poared vehicles. As more people shift towards EVs, the demand for power consumption forecasting is increasing to manage the charging stations effectively. Predicting power consumption can help optimize operations, prevent grid overloading, and power outages, and assist companies in estimating the number of charging stations required to meet demand. The paper uses three time series models to predict the electricity demand for charging stations, and the SARIMA (Seasonal Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average) model outperforms the ARMA (Auto Regressive Moving Average) and ARIMA (Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average) models, with the least RMSE (Root Mean Squared Error), MAE (Mean Absolute Error) and MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error) scores in forecasting power demand and revenue. The data used for validation consists of charging activities over a four-year period from public charging outlets in Colorado, six months of charging data from ChargeMOD's public charging terminals in Kerala, India. Power usage is also forecasted based on wheels of vehicles, and finally, a plan subscription data from the same source is utilized to anticipate income, that helps companies develop pricing strategies to maximize profits while remaining competitive. Utility firms and charging networks may use accurate power consumption forecasts for a variety of purposes, such as power scheduling and determining the expected energy requirements for charging stations. Ultimately, precise power consumption forecasting can assist in the effective planning and design of EV charging infrastructure. The main aim of this study is to create a good time series model which can estimate the electric vehicle charging stations usage of power and verify if the firm has a good income along with some accuracy measures. The results show that SARIMA model plays a vital role in providing us with accurate information. According to the data and study here, four wheelers use more power than two and three wheelers. Also, DC charging facility uses more electricity than AC charging stations. These results can be used to determine the cost to operate the EVs and its subscriptions.

摘要

电动汽车是汽车行业的未来,因为它们零排放,解决了传统燃油汽车造成的环境和健康问题。随着越来越多的人转向电动汽车,为有效管理充电站,对电力消耗预测的需求日益增加。预测电力消耗有助于优化运营、防止电网过载和停电,并帮助公司估计满足需求所需的充电站数量。本文使用三种时间序列模型预测充电站的电力需求,季节性自回归积分移动平均(SARIMA)模型优于自回归移动平均(ARMA)模型和自回归积分移动平均(ARIMA)模型,在预测电力需求和收入方面具有最小的均方根误差(RMSE)、平均绝对误差(MAE)和平均绝对百分比误差(MAPE)得分。用于验证的数据包括科罗拉多州公共充电插座四年期间的充电活动、印度喀拉拉邦ChargeMOD公共充电终端六个月的充电数据。还根据车辆的车轮预测电力使用情况,最后,利用来自同一来源的计划订阅数据预测收入,这有助于公司制定定价策略,在保持竞争力的同时实现利润最大化。公用事业公司和充电网络可将准确的电力消耗预测用于各种目的,如电力调度和确定充电站的预期能源需求。最终,精确的电力消耗预测有助于电动汽车充电基础设施的有效规划和设计。本研究的主要目的是创建一个良好的时间序列模型,该模型可以估计电动汽车充电站的电力使用情况,并验证公司是否有良好的收入以及一些准确性指标。结果表明,SARIMA模型在为我们提供准确信息方面发挥着至关重要的作用。根据此处的数据和研究,四轮车比两轮车和三轮车消耗更多电力。此外,直流充电设施比交流充电站消耗更多电力。这些结果可用于确定电动汽车运营及其订阅的成本。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/bc83/10948759/0d78d9e8a6bf/41598_2024_56507_Fig1_HTML.jpg

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