Prospective associations between systolic blood pressure, serum cholesterol, and physical activity behaviour and the development of cardiovascular disease.

AIMS

To systematically appraise and summarise meta-analyses of longitudinal studies to determine the effect size, and quality and certainty of the evidence summaries for systolic blood pressure (SBP), serum cholesterol, and physical activity behaviour in developing cardiovascular disease (CVD).

METHODS AND RESULTS

An umbrella review was conducted by searching MEDLINE, Embase, and Scopus databases. Eligible meta-analyses were longitudinal studies investigating the association between SBP, serum cholesterol, or physical activity behaviour on CVD development. Summary risk estimates were extracted. Quality and certainty of the evidence summaries of included records were performed using AMSTAR 2 and GRADE, respectively. Forty-one eligible records were found of which thirteen related to SBP, five to cholesterol, and twenty-three to physical activity behaviour. The quality and certainty of the evidence summaries were variable, with most studies rating 'low'. Reported risk estimates for the risk of developing CVD ranged from: no change to a 68% decreased risk for lower SBP; a 21% increased risk to a 44% decreased risk for lower cholesterol; and a 1% decreased risk to a 56% decreased risk for higher physical activity levels.

CONCLUSIONS

There were strong associations with CVD risk at the meta-analysis level for all three exposures, with a proportionally greater number of meta-analyses and primary studies for physical activity than SBP or serum cholesterol. Given the number of meta-analyses and similar CVD risk reductions and certainty of evidence associated with physical activity behaviour, there is a strong case for its routine assessment alongside SBP and serum cholesterol in primary CVD prevention.