Cui Shaopeng, Zhang Huisheng, Liu Lirui, Lyu Weiwei, Xu Lin, Zhang Zhiwei, Han Youzhi
College of Forestry, Shanxi Agricultural University, Jinzhong 030801, China.
Shanxi Dangerous Forest Pest Inspection and Identification Center, Jinzhong 030801, China.
Insects. 2024 Apr 5;15(4):250. doi: 10.3390/insects15040250.
As a globally invasive quarantine pest, the cotton mealybug, , is spreading rapidly, posing serious threats against agricultural and forestry production and biosecurity. In recent years, the niche conservatism hypothesis has been widely debated, which is particularly evident in invasive biology research. Identifying the niche dynamics of , as well as assessing its global invasion risk, is of both theoretical and practical importance. Based on 462 occurrence points and 19 bioclimatic variables, we used -dimensional hypervolume analysis to quantify the multidimensional climatic niche of this pest in both its native and invasive ranges. We examined niche conservatism and further optimized the MaxEnt model parameters to predict the global invasion risk of under both current and future climate conditions. Our findings indicated that the niche hypervolume of this pest in invasive ranges was significantly larger than that in its native ranges, with 99.45% of the niche differentiation contributed by niche expansion, with the remaining less than 1% explained by space replacement. Niche expansion was most evident in Oceania and Eurasia. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (0.83) and true skill statistic (0.62) indicated the model's robust performance. The areas of suitable habitats for are increasing significantly and the northward spread is obvious in future climate change scenarios. North Africa, northern China, Mediterranean regions, and northern Europe had an increased invasion risk of . This study provided scientific support for the early warning and control of
作为一种全球入侵性检疫害虫，棉粉蚧正在迅速蔓延，对农业和林业生产以及生物安全构成严重威胁。近年来，生态位保守性假说一直备受争议，这在入侵生物学研究中尤为明显。确定棉粉蚧的生态位动态以及评估其全球入侵风险，具有理论和实践双重重要意义。基于462个发生点和19个生物气候变量，我们使用n维超体积分析来量化这种害虫在其原生和入侵范围内的多维气候生态位。我们检验了生态位保守性，并进一步优化了MaxEnt模型参数，以预测棉粉蚧在当前和未来气候条件下的全球入侵风险。我们的研究结果表明，这种害虫在入侵范围内的生态位超体积显著大于其原生范围内的生态位超体积，其中99.45%的生态位分化是由生态位扩张导致的，其余不到1%是由空间替代造成的。生态位扩张在大洋洲和欧亚大陆最为明显。受试者工作特征曲线下的面积（0.83）和真实技能统计量（0.62）表明模型性能稳健。在未来气候变化情景下，棉粉蚧适宜栖息地的面积正在显著增加，且向北扩散明显。北非、中国北方、地中海地区和北欧的棉粉蚧入侵风险增加。本研究为棉粉蚧的预警和防控提供了科学支持
